The Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets on June 19, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Braves enter as -135 favorites on the moneyline with the over/under sitting at 9.
Read our Mets vs Braves prediction and MLB pick below.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Picks
- Mets vs. Braves Pick: Over 8.5 (-120 · BetMGM)
My Braves vs. Mets best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Braves Odds, Spread, Line
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 9 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -110o / -110u | -135 |
Mets vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Clay Holmes Takes the Mound
Thursday's matchup with the Braves should be a great litmus test for where right-hander Clay Holmes is at the moment.
He's pitched to a tidy 2.50 ERA this month, but he's had the fortune of facing the Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays — and even in those outings, four of the five runs he's given up have come via the home run.
Holmes is suddenly struggling to keep the ball in the park, which is something we've never seen before.
The veteran had allowed just 20 homers in his seven-year career as a reliever before 2025, and his heavy reliance upon ground balls has been the biggest reason why.
When we factor in that the converted reliever has pitched to a 44% hard-hit rate and owns a .416 Expected Slugging, it becomes a bit less surprising. He's been missing with his sinker up a bit, and now he'll face a Braves offense that ranks 12th in Expected Batting Average against sinkers from right-handers and backs that up with a solid-enough .447 xSLG.
Holmes has at least managed to suppress his growing walk totals, but his strikeouts have tumbled along with them as he's punched out just 21.1% of the batters he's faced.
That should certainly play a role here, given that Atlanta has dealt with some tough strikeout numbers for parts of the last season and a half when it's been struggling.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Fade Spencer Strider?
Spencer Strider certainly isn't pitching like the Cy Young hopeful he once was, but I'd venture to say he's always more or less been the guy we've seen thus far in 2025.
The righty has taken an enormous step back from the insane strikeout numbers he was putting up from 2022-23, but other than that, his profile has remained roughly the same.
He's a huge home run and walk risk, and while his xSLG is at a career-worst .444 — representing a massive jump from his last full season — he continues to allow a whole host of fly balls.
He's still running a near-30% strikeout rate with an even-better 33.1% whiff rate, so there's time for the strikeouts to return and plenty of great matchups to play him in.
The Braves' offense has started to heat up after a brutal early April, posting a 107 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. Ronald Acuna Jr. has been the main driver of the improvement, slashing .439/.566/.829 with five home runs during the stretch.
Mets vs Braves Pick, Best Bets
Holmes has run into a home run problem, and Strider is always a hard-throwing, hard-contact guy, so I believe both starting pitchers are extremely vulnerable entering this matchup with two hard-hitting lineups.
The weather should be very hitter-friendly at Truist Park on Thursday, with 83-degree temperatures and winds blowing out toward left-center field. RotoGrinders WeatherEdge projects a +46.7% home run factor for the game, which could prove problematic for two starting pitchers struggling on contact.
I’m also not exceedingly high on either bullpen, which makes this a sure-fire Over for me.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120 · BetMGM)
