The Pittsburgh Pirates host the New York Mets on August 7, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Pirates are favored by -132 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +122 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Pirates Prediction
- Mets vs Pirates Pick: Over 8.5 (+102)
My Mets vs Pirates best bet is 9+ total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Pirates Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 102o / -124u | +122 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 102o / -124u | -132 |
- Mets vs Pirates moneyline: Mets +122, Pirates -132
- Mets vs Pirates over/under: 8.5 (-102o / -124u)
- Mets vs Pirates spread: Pirates -1.5 (+158), Mets +1.5 (-192)
Mets vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| Zac Thornton | Stat | Carmen Mlodzinski |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 6-3 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 2.88 / 4.85 | ERA / xERA | 3.15 / 4.85 |
| 3.79 / 4.26 | FIP / xFIP | 3.50 / 4.29 |
| 10.4 | K-BB% | 11.2 |
| 40.8 | GB% | 40.3 |
| .240 | BABIP | .301 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 92 | Location+ | 105 |
Mets vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
The "Twilight Totals (SEASON)" system targets overs in games that begin in the late afternoon to early evening—what bettors often refer to as "twilight spots." These games exist in a temperature and lighting window that subtly elevates scoring conditions, particularly when both teams have a documented tendency to hit overs.
Combined with home starters who may have below-average WHIPs, this setup identifies an edge before the public fully reacts. By isolating recent season trends and capitalizing on the transitional scoring environment, the model captures a high-expectation scoring spot that may be underpriced due to time-of-day bias or modest pitching projections.
Mets vs Pirates Pick, Betting Analysis
Starting at 6:40 p.m. ET, the game lands directly in that transitional lighting and weather threshold.
Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski gets the nod for Pittsburgh, bringing a 1.31 WHIP over 94.1 innings pitched. That elevated base-runner traffic puts extra strain on the defense during twilight innings, creating prime scoring opportunities for a Mets lineup capable of taking advantage of mistakes.
Opposite Mlodzinski, left-hander Zac Thornton takes the mound for New York, leaving both bullpens exposed once the starters exit early.
With the environment working in favor of offense and pitching matchups aligned to yield soft contact and walks, backing the over presents strong value.
Pick: Over 8.5 (+102)
