The St. Louis Cardinals host the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 25, 2026. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Cardinals are favored by -132 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +112 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Pick: Cardinals TT Over 4.5 (-120 or Better)
My Diamondbacks vs Cardinals best bet is TK PICK TK. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 9 -105o / -115u | +112 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 9 -105o / -115u | -132 |
- Diamondbacks vs Cardinals moneyline: Diamondbacks +112, Cardinals -132
- Diamondbacks vs Cardinals over/under: 9 (-105o / -115u)
- Diamondbacks vs Cardinals spread: Cardinals -1.5 (+162), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-196)
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals MLB Betting Preview
Zac Gallen’s basically-qualifying-offer deal has been a complete disaster.
Since the start of May, Gallen has allowed 44 runs over just 51 innings.
The underlying indicators may not be 7.76 ERA bad (.352 BABIP, 58.5 LOB%), but they’re not nearly good (7.0 K-BB%, 9.1% Barrels/BBE).
If he didn’t have five seasons of an 18.8 K-BB% to fall back on prior to last year, Gallen might not be pitching in this league anymore.
In fact, this is three straight seasons of decline in his K-BB (probably the most important stat for pitchers) from a career high of 20.4% in 2023 to 7.4% this year.
Pitch modeling still likes this guy for some reason (3.96 Bot ERA, 100 Pitching+), but that’s mostly due to command grades (59 botCmd, 110 Location+) over stuff (47 botStf, 87 Stuff+). In other words, he’s throwing a garage on the edges of the plate, and it’s not stopping anybody from hammering it.
RHBs have a .352 wOBA against him this year, and LHBs are at .400 on the nose, and these numbers are more or less confirmed by complementing Statcast expected values of .325 and .399. A few points of improvement against RHBs aren’t going to change much.
Gallen’s best non-pitch modeling estimator? A 4.71 xFIP. His 5.66 xERA is within a half-run margin of error of his 6.10 ERA.
The St. Louis offense has been far better than expected, with a 102 wRC+ at home and 107 against RHIP, but now at full health, the projected lineup has an even better 118 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 119 against RHP in 2026.
Driveline should make Jordan Walker their poster boy.
Gallen will eventually, and possibly sooner than later, turn it over to an Arizona bullpen that ranks a modest 13th via BARTOLO (3.83 wFIP).
However, that unit has a 4.41 FIP, 4.35 xFIP, and 4.09 SIERA over the last month, and if things go our way, they’ll be employing more middle and multi-inning relievers like Drew Jameson (4.88 wFIP) and Taylor Clarke (4.35 wFIP) than high-leverage ones, at least until it’s too late and doesn’t matter anymore.
Current Statcast rolling three-year park factors have St Louis suppressing run scoring by 6%, and weather isn’t expected to impact that much one way or another, but scheduled umpire Carlos Torres generally gives about half of that back.
Still, the slightly negative run environment will keep us at 0.5 units on this one.
Pick: Cardinals TT Over 4.5 (-120 or Better)
