The Cleveland Guardians host the New York Yankees on June 9, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CLEG.
The Yankees are -134 on the moneyline. The Guardians are +114 on the moneyline. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction
- Yankees vs Guardians Pick: Slade Cecconi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100 or Better)
My Yankees vs Guardians best bet is on Slade Cecconi's strikeout prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Guardians Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -134 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -146 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +114 |
- Yankees vs Guardians moneyline: Yankees -134, Guardians +114
- Yankees vs Guardians over/under: 8.5 (-105 / -115)
- Yankees vs Guardians spread: Yankees -1.5 (+122), Guardians +1.5 (-146)
Yankees vs Guardians Kalshi MLB Odds
Yankees vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Gerrit Cole (RHP, NYY) | Stat | Slade Cecconi (RHP, CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 2.00 / 2.50 | ERA / xERA | 4.92 / 4.48 |
| 4.38 / 4.46 | FIP / xFIP | 4.30 / 4.28 |
| 14.7% | K-BB% | 11.3% |
| 22.0% | GB% | 44.1% |
| .191 | BABIP | .325 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 105 | Location+ | 101 |
Yankees vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Gerrit Cole has had an enigmatic start to his 2026 season. Let’s just look at his three starts so far.
Start 1 vs. TBR: 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 3 BB
Cole’s velocity (96.2 MPH) was in line with his 2024 season (95.9 MPH), where he only threw 95 innings and had his lowest K-BB (17.9%) rate since Pittsburgh. It was a 0.8-mph drop from 2024. He produced just a 5.4% SwStr rate with a 4.45 botERA and 80 Pitching+ for the game. Ultimately, good results, poor underlying indicators.
Start 2 @ KCR: 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K, 0 BB
Cole’s velocity increased to 96.4 MPH with his SwSt rate jumping to 15.2%, as he carved through a fairly contact-prone Kansas City lineup. His pitch modeling improved to a 2.86 botERA and 112 Pitching+. Ultimately, great results, great underlying performance.
Start 3 vs. CLE: 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K, 1 BB
Cole’s velocity increased to 96.8 MPH, and his pitch modeling improved to a 2.45 botERA and 112 Pitching+, but he allowed two barrels and eight hard-hit batted balls behind just a 2.4% SwSt rate. Ultimately, poor results and confusing underlying performance.
I’m not going to lie, I don’t know what to make of it.
He has a 2.00 ERA with a 4.54 SIERA, 2.49 xERA, 3.20 botERA, and 102 Pitching+. There’s no consensus between any of the measures.
His ERA projections run from 3.94 (OOPSY) to 4.59 (THE BAT X). Now, THE BAT generally assumes a higher offensive environment and runs about half a run above most other projection systems, but the consensus on the rest of them is right around four.
One interesting find is that Pitcher’s List gave him a B or B- stuff grade for each of his three outings.
We can expect Cleveland to send nine lefties to the plate. In his three starts, Cole has surrendered a wOBA between .270 and .275 to batters from either side of the plate, but a .238 xwOBA to lefties and .276 xwOBA to righties.
The Guardians have a 101 wRC+ at home this season, but just 93 against right-handed pitchers. The projected lineup has a 99 wRC+ against righties since last season, but just an 87 wRC+ overall across the past 30 days.
Travis Bazanna (162 wRC+ vs RHP, 134 L30 days), Jose Ramirez (118, 122), and Kyle Manzardo (111, 161) have been the majority of the offense. Most of Bazanna’s damage was done earlier in his debut season, and these are below-average numbers for Ramirez.
The Guardians will run. Ramirez has 23 stolen bases already, and Bazanna 11. They both lead the team with two Base Running Runs each.
In a small sample, runners have taken off on 1.2% of 82 opportunities against Cole so far (0 Net Bases Prevented). In 14 attempts, J.C. Escarra has caught three runners, also good for 0 CS Above Average.
I would expect the Guardians to run if given the opportunity. Ramirez did steal a base in Cole’s last start.
The Yankees have been a neutral defense this year with 0 Runs Prevented and 0 OAA. The projected lineup has six FRV (Fielding Run Value), with all of their positive value coming from Cody Bellinger (4) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3), though only Trent Grisham (-2) has been a poor defender, continuing his decline in that area of his game from last season.
The Yankee bullpen has middle-of-the-league estimators over the last month, with a 3.92 FIP, 3.89 xFIP, and 3.57 SIERA, all better than their 4.03 ERA over this span.
Sean Zerillo rates the Yankees as the seventh-best bullpen in the league, with available relievers owning a 3.74 wFIP. However, they used seven relievers in Monday night’s extra-inning win, with closer David Bednar (38 pitches) and Brent Headrick (26) having thrown in back-to-back days.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
By comparison, Slade Cecconi is much easier to analyze.
His 4.92 ERA is elevated relative to estimators ranging from a 4.20 dERA to a 4.52 Bot ERA (90 Pitching+), firmly placing him in the below-average-but-firmly-competent back-end starter category.
He’s coming off six innings of one-run ball (four strikeouts) against these Yankees, allowing just four hits and four hard-hit batted balls (25%). It was his second quality start in his past four outings, but only his third of the year.
Cecconi throws a fastball (31.2%), cutter (26.4%), and sinker (18.2%) for the majority of his pitches, with a curveball (15.2%) and slider (7.2%) less often. He’ll throw fastballs and cutters to either side, but he throws more curveballs and fewer sinkers to lefties.
The curveball (42 PitchingBot, 73 Pitching+) is his worst-graded pitch, and the four-seamer (56 PB, 101 P+) is his best.
The bigger story here is the Yankee offense (104 wRC+, 110 vs RHP) in the absence of Judge, who played his last game on May 31st. They have an 87 wRC+ since (through Sunday).
The projected lineup has a 102 wRC+ both over the last 30 days and against righties since last season.
However, Grisham, Bellinger, Chisholm, Ben Rice, and Paul Goldschmidt all have at least a 119 wRC+ over the past month, and all but Goldschmidt have at least a 114 wRC+ against righties since last season. No one else in the projected lineup reaches league-average in either instance.
Chisholm (2) is the only projected Yankee with more than a single BRR, and Ryan McMahon is the only other Yankee in positive territory with one. Chisholm leads the team in stolen bases (16), and even though Jose Caballero has 15, he’s a net negative with -1 Runs via Stolen Bases, per Statcast.
Runners have taken off on 1.3% of opportunities against Cecconi, who has accumulated -1 Net Bases Prevented, though he’s likely to have one of the best throwing catchers in the league behind the plate in Patrick Bailey, who has thrown out 32% of runners for 3 CS Above Average. Austin Hedges has been less successful, throwing out just two of 20 for -1 CSAA.
While the Cleveland defense is merely middle of the league (2 Runs Prevented, 3 OAA), the projected lineup scores 18 FRV with Ramirez, Daniel Schneeman, Angel Martinez, Steven Kwan, and Bailey all accumulating at least four. It seems the Guardians dispatched most of their worst defenders earlier in the season.
The bullpen in Cleveland has posted MLB's second-best 2.83 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, and 2.92 SIERA over the past 30 days. They used five relievers on Monday, though none for more than 23 pitches or for the second day in a row. In fact, only Tim Herrin has worked two of the last three.
Overall, Sean ranks the Guardians as his eighth-best bullpen, one spot behind the Yankees, but with rested relievers owning a slightly better 3.69 wFIP.
Yankees vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
Cleveland is a negative-run environment, with a 96 Park Run Factor over the past three seasons. But temperatures around 80, with near-10-MPH winds out toward right-center field, could push the park into neutral or even slightly positive territory.
We do have to be aware of a significant threat of rain. Just be aware that early forecasts are volatile, too.
Cecconi has performed only slightly worse than Cole’s projections and about one-third of a run worse than Cole has performed overall so far.
Even in the absence of Judge, the Yankees still have the slightly better offense.
The Guardians are at home, project a 12 FRV edge defensively, and may have the slightly better and more rested bullpen in this game.
As such, I’m somewhat aligned with the market. If I had more confidence in Cole’s projections and performance, I might see some value in Cleveland at +110 or better.
But since I don’t, I’d look for a larger edge to consider it actionable.
I’m slightly below the eight-run total, but again, without a large amount of confidence in half the equation.
Under these circumstances, I’ve decided to focus on Cecconi and the Yankee offense.
I have a small lean towards the Yankees going under their 4.5 run team total, but the -128 price tag is a deterrent.
The bet I’ve decided on for this game is Cecconi to go over his strikeout prop.
This could backfire in the event of a rain delay, and I wouldn’t deter anyone from waiting for a fresher forecast. But since I’m writing this on Monday night, I opted to take the current price and hope he gets his normal workload.
To start with, the Yankees have been running out six to seven lefties recently, and Cecconi actually has a higher strikeout rate against lefties both this year (20.6%) and last year (22.3%).
The projected Yankee offense has averaged a 23.7% K rate vs RHP since last season, with Chisholm, Spencer Jones, and McMahon all above 28%.
While the park has only a minor effect on strikeouts (+2% based on the number of lefties and righties Cecconi is expected to face), scheduled umpire Jacob Metz has increased strikeouts by nearly 9% when he’s behind the plate (although he is a newer umpire). That’s higher than almost any umpire in the league, so I’d expect some regression.
Therefore, I’m conservatively projecting Cecconi for a near 10% increase (park plus umpire), which is about half an extra strikeout, getting him to five a bit more than half the time and showing value on the current number.
Pick: Slade Cecconi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100 or Better)
