The Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 25, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Red Sox are -112 on the moneyline. The Blue Jays are -104 on the moneyline. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 or Better)
My Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -104 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -112 |
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox moneyline: Blue Jays -104, Red Sox -112
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox over/under: 7.5 (-115 / -105)
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+164), Red Sox +1.5 (-200)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
I believe the environment requires the most analysis in this one.
Fenway Park increases run scoring by 4% no matter when you’ve utilized.
Weather doesn’t appear likely to have an impact, while scheduled umpire Paul Clemons (-1.4%) might have a negative one.
We’re not too far above neutral now.
Both pitchers, Dylan Cease and Sonny Gray, are having fabulous debut seasons with their new American League East teams.
Cease’s 2.67 ERA is only about one-third of a run below his true performance (36.3 K%, 5.4% Barrels/BBE).
Gray’s performance has been a bit more than a run worse than his 2.48 ERA. The 86.6 LOB% is nearly 10 points above his previous career high, but he's still pretty good with a 15.7 K-BB% and 36.6 HardHit%.
The Red Sox have been on fire. The projected lineup has averaged a 115 wRC+ over the last month, but just 86 at home and 97 against RHP this year.
The Toronto projected lineup has been cringeworthy. They have the same average wRC+ against RHP as the Red Sox, but just an 86 wRC+ on the road and 66 wRC+ over the last 30 days (through Thursday). Nathan Lukes (102), Ernie Clement (102), and George Springer (92) lead this lineup over the last month.
Add in 31 combined FRV (Fielding Run Value) from the projected defenses and a pair of bullpens with top third of the league BARTOLO rankings this season and top third of the league estimators over the last 30 days, and the conditions are ripe for a pitching duel.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 or Better)
