The Miami Marlins host the San Diego Padres on July 25, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Marlins are -130 on the moneyline. The Padres are +110 on the moneyline. The total is 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Marlins Prediction
- Padres vs Marlins Pick: Marlins ML (-160 or Better)
My Padres vs Marlins best bet is on Miami. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Marlins Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8.5 102o / -124u | +110 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 8.5 102o / -124u | -130 |
- Padres vs Marlins moneyline: Padres +110, Marlins -130
- Padres vs Marlins over/under: 8.5 (+102 / -124)
- Padres vs Marlins spread: Padres +1.5 (-205), Marlins -1.5 (+168)
Padres vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| JP Sears (LHP, SDP) | Stat | Eury Perez (RHP, MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 5-7 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 4.38 / 4.85 | ERA / xERA | 3.53 / 4.06 |
| 5.09 / 4.40 | FIP / xFIP | 4.12 / 3.98 |
| 11.5% | K-BB% | 18.1% |
| 42.5% | GB% | 37.6% |
| .254 | BABIP | .248 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 116 |
| 99 | Location+ | 93 |
Padres vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The Padres are fading further and further from the NL Wild Card. This series could decide their fate, as the Marlins are a few spots above them in the playoff race.
On the mound for San Diego is JP Sears, who turned in two dazzling outings in his last three starts. He held the scalding hot Braves to one run across five innings and the Dodgers to no runs and one hit in five innings.
After spending three months in the minors, Sears returned to the bigs in early June. Sears owns a 4.38 ERA with a 4.85 xERA and a 5.09 FIP in five starts.
Nothing about Sears jumps off the page. His stuff is mediocre, with a Stuff+ rating of 89. He also strikes out just 7.27 hitters per nine and gives up 1.82 HR/9.
Sears has some pretty concerning batted ball data, albeit in a small sample. He gives up a 48% hard hit rate and a 9.5% barrel rate, which are both well below league-average numbers.
But let's take a look at the much-maligned San Diego offense. From March to June, the Padres had the worst offense in the league by wRC+ (88).
But in July, they boasted the sixth-best wRC+ in baseball.
So, what changed?
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are playing like stars again. Tatis Jr. has a 144 wRC+ (up from 106 in the first three months), and Machado has totally flipped.
That's not to mention Ty France, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth also posting a wRC+ better than 120.
However, there's a lot of dead weight in this lineup.
Xander Bogaerts is horrible, Sung Mun-Song can't hit, and the soft-hitting Freddy Fermin will likely catch in this one.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
Opposing the soft-tossing Sears is Eury Perez, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball of late. Since May 22nd (just a seven-start span due to injury), Perez boasts a 1.14 ERA with a 2.50 xERA and 2.67 FIP.
The question for Perez was never talent. It was if he could stay healthy and throw strikes.
Right now, Perez is healthy, and his BB/9 over his last seven outings is 2.06. Plus, his K/9 is 10.53, and his HR/9 is 0.69. All of those figures point to Perez being one of the best starters in the league.
The Marlins offense has performed well in July, ranking 11th among MLB lineups with a 110 wRC+. Their plate approach puts stress on opposing starters, as they walk 9% of the time and strike out just 21%.
Miami is even hitting for power, cracking 26 homers in its last 18 games. On the year, it ranks 24th in homers.
I don't buy the Marlins as a strong power-hitting squad, but the right-handed thump of this lineup could get to Sears and his issues with the long ball.
Griffin Conine and Heiberto Hernandez have spearheaded the right-handed hitting attack for the Marlins. Conine has four homers in July, and Hernandez has five — and the latter has a dazzling 185 wRC+.
Padres vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
Looking at the line, the Marlins should be a much heavier favorite.
I don't think the books are showing Perez the proper respect.
The Marlins are 31-21 at home.
With an ace on the mound and a lot of success at home, I think the Marlins should be around -160.
Pick: Marlins ML (-160 or Better)
