The Cleveland Guardians host the New York Yankees on June 10, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CLEG.
The Guardians are -112 on the moneyline. The Yankees are -104 on the moneyline. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction
- Yankees vs Guardians Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 or better)
My Yankees vs Guardians best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Guardians Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -104 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -112 |
- Yankees vs Guardians moneyline: Yankees -104, Guardians -112
- Yankees vs Guardians over/under: 7.5 (-122 / -100)
- Yankees vs Guardians spread: Yankees -1.5 (+162), Guardians +1.5 (-194)
Yankees vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY) | Stat | LHP Parker Messick (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 6-2 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 2.88 / 3.04 | ERA / xERA | 2.40 / 3.38 |
| 3.51 / 4.26 | FIP / xFIP | 3.34 / 3.37 |
| 10.6% | K-BB% | 19,0% |
| 47.5% | GB% | 41.1% |
| .220 | BABIP | .269 |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 86 | Location+ | 106 |
Yankees vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Carlos Rodon was a total X-Factor for the Yankees this season. He struggled late last year and was even sitting in the 91- 93 mph range on his four-seamer, which turned out to be an elbow injury. Upon his return last month, Rodon is throwing 94-97 mph and looks more like his old self.
He's pitching to a strong 2.88 ERA, a 3.04 xERA, and a 3.51 FIP, indicating this is no fluke. His days of being an ace might be gone, but he'll provide solid innings to this Yankees rotation that is down Max Fried due to an injury.
Rodon's last outing came against this same Guardians club — he tossed six innings with just one earned run and seven strikeouts.
Walks have been the issue for Rodon this year. He walked 3+ hitters in four of his five outings, equating to a 5.76 BB/9. That'll sting him eventually, but less so if he can keep his HR/9 in check. While his current 0.36 HR/9 seems unsustainable, if he can match his 1.01 from last year, he'll still put up solid numbers.
Pitching has to be good for the current state of the Yankees, who are without the powers of the legendary Aaron Judge for at least six weeks.
Not having Judge turned this offense into a top-five unit in the league to barely a top-20 offense in a week. They have a 94 wRC+ in the week since Judge went down, with their walk rate tanking to 7.8%. Teams will pitch around Ben Rice, but Judge is so good at drawing walks, and that's missing for the Yankees right now.
Are they better than the 21st-best offense in the league without Judge? Maybe. But a big maybe. Diving deeper, the Yankees are 21st in RC+, and that includes a 202 wRC+ from Trent Grisham and a 174 from Paul Goldschmidt. Some of the other hitters outside the top four need to carry some weight to boost this lineup in Judge's stead.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
Opposing Rodon is a fellow southpaw, rookie Parker Messick, who's an AL ROY candidate. Messick owns a strong 2.40 ERA with a solid 3.38 xERA and a 3.34 FIP.
Messick is another pitcher who doesn't get hurt by the long ball, giving up a 0.96 HR/9. He also punches out 9.36 per nine and walks 2.64.
He's not a super hard thrower, averaging 93 mph on his fastball and reaching 96-97. With decent but not great velocity, Messick makes up for it with deception and a six-pitch mix to strike out close to 10 per nine.
This might be a Captain Obvious moment, but Messick's two worst outings this year came in games where the long ball stung him. He gave up two homers and three runs in a loss to the Rangers in his last outing and three homers and four runs to the Athletics in his worst outing this year.
If he can keep this hampered Yankees lineup in the yard, he'll pitch well.
The Guardians' offense has also struggled in June, ranking 26th with an 86 wRC+. Only two hitters on the team have a wRC+ above 83 in that span, with Kyle Manzardo's 216 leading the team and Jose Ramirez checking in with a 176.
Rodon can limit Manzardo in a lefty-lefty duel, but Ramirez is always scary. If the Yankees can face him with nobody on, that would make for less stressful duels between him and Rodon.
Yankees vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm rolling with the under eight runs here. Neither offense has looked good in June, and both pitchers are well above-average. Matchup-wise, Rodon should limit some of these Guardians lefties, while Messick has the advantage in matchups against Grisham and Ben Rice — two of the Yankees' most important hitters.
This feels like a classic 3-2 or 2-1 ballgame.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 or Better)
