The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees on September 4, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SCHN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Yankees vs Astros Prediction
- Yankees vs Astros picks: Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
My Yankees vs Astros best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Astros Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -135 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +115 |
Yankees vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY) | Stat | RHP Cristian Javier (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 15-7 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.18 / 3.29 | ERA / xERA | 3.38 / 2.73 |
| 3.83 / 3.93 | FIP / xFIP | 3.82 / 5.31 |
| 1.08 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 16.5% | K-BB% | 10.4% |
| 43% | GB% | 24.4% |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 89 | Location+ | 79 |
Tony Sartori’s Yankees vs Astros Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Rodón Riding High
Carlos Rodón is having his best season as a Yankee. An All-Star, Rodón is 15-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 28 starts.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. This season, the southpaw ranks in the top quarter of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA) and strikeout rate.
This success is likely to continue against Houston, a team Rodón has dominated throughout his career. Across 11 meetings, he is 4-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
Following Rodón is a bullpen expected to close the year strong. This season, New York’s relief corps ranks third in expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP).
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Javier Silverlining For Struggling Astros
The Yankees' pitching staff should find success against this below-average Astros lineup. Entering this matchup, Houston ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, slugging percentage, home runs and stolen bases.
These woes are likely to continue against Rodón. Through 117 combined plate appearances against the left-hander, the current Astros roster has a mere .232 xBA and .370 expected slugging percentage (xSLG).
The good news for Houston is that Cristian Javier has thrived since returning from Tommy John surgery. Across his first four starts, Javier boasts a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Javier's analytics are even stronger. If he officially qualified, the right-hander would rank near the top of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate.
Yankees vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
Following Javier is a bullpen that ranks in the top 10 in ERA, xFIP and wins above replacement (WAR). The main concern in taking the under in this matchup is New York’s powerhouse lineup.
That said, Javier is capable of handling the task. Through 66 combined plate appearances against him, the current Yankees roster has a .180 batting average and .195 xBA.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
Moneyline
I lean toward New York, but I don't want to fade Javier.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like New York to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting Under 8.5.
Yankees vs Astros Betting Trends
