Orioles vs Nationals Odds, Pick & Prediction (5/7)

On Tuesday, the Baltimore Orioles will travel to the nation's capital for an interleague series against the Washington Nationals. The Orioles look the part of one of the elite teams in the American League, while the Nationals have surprisingly caused problems for opposing teams this season.

Baltimore has won seven of its last nine games, while Washington has won seven of its last 10. These two teams are surging at the same time, so something will have to give here. The starting pitching matchup is also a good one, as Corbin Burnes of the Orioles and Trevor Williams of the Nationals enter Tuesday with sub-3 ERAs.

Orioles vs Nationals odds have the Orioles installed as -225 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8.5. I'll be targeting the over/under for my Orioles vs Nationals prediction.

It's been a very strange first year in Baltimore for Corbin Burnes, as his 8.61 K/9 rate is the lowest of his career, while his walk rate is cut in half from last year. Burnes is also getting hit harder than ever. Last year, he ranked in the 86th and 89th percentiles in hard hit rate and barrel rates, respectively; this year, Burnes sits in the 19th and 31st percentiles.

Is it a byproduct of coming to a new league for the first time or is Burnes no longer his dominate, CY Young Award contending self? It's hard to tell, but he's yielded a 2.61 ERA in 41.1 innings.

The Orioles' offense is terrifying, ranking second in MLB with a 119 wRC+, only behind the Dodgers at 132. Opposing pitchers don't have an easy spot in the lineup to take a breath, as eight of the nine regular starters have a wRC+ over 100. Six of the nine starters against right-handed pitching have wRC+'s above 140. The reason I denoted the right-handed pitching lineup is Ryan O'Hearn, who's solely a platoon bat and plays only against righties. He leads the Orioles with an astonishing 173 wRC+.

After the years of tanking, seeing the payoff of the draft picks like Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser and Adley Rutschman surging is exactly what the Orioles imagined. You shouldn't take this Baltimore team lightly. They're contenders, not pretenders.

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The Nationals have caught people by surprise, sitting at .500 a month into the season. Most people thought they would finish last in the NL East. Instead, the Nationals sit in third behind the shockingly poor and now-rebuilding Miami Marlins and the inconsistent New York Mets.

So, what's the main reason for the Nationals' hot start? Offensive success from middle infielders CJ Abrams and Luis García Jr. Abrams is slowly making the Juan Soto trade worthwhile, posting a 152 wRC+; he is so dangerous because of his game-breaking speed on the base paths with eight steals to pair with his power (seven home runs). García found his stride in the past seven games, hitting .417 over that stretch and .337 for the season. The 23-year-old second baseman leads the National with a 154 wRC+. You'd be hard-pressed to find a better middle-infield duo this season.

If you're looking for an area of regression for the Nationals, it's the starting rotation. Trevor Williams posted a 5.55 ERA last year with even worse underlying numbers, and now he has a 2.27 ERA in 31.1 innings. Williams' main pitch is his four-seam fastball, which sits around 88-91 MPH. He's one of the softest tossing pitchers, and he doesn't do a great job changing hitters' levels and mixing in his four other pitches. Although Williams's recent track record makes his hot start in 2024 look like a facade, his FIP is 2.90, so there's some lasting value here.

The Nationals are 5-1 in Williams' six starts this season; he won three of them, and the bullpen put the finishing touches on the other three. Once the game gets to the eighth inning, it's an uphill battle for opposing lineups. Closer Kyle Finnegan leads the NL in saves, and Hunter Harvey is developing into one of the sport's premier setup arms with a 2.45 ERA in 18.1 innings.

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It wouldn't surprise me if both offenses found their strides early and get towards the over. The Orioles punish right-handed pitching, and the soft-tossing Williams could get crushed by the high-powered young lineup.

The Nationals played against another AL East foe, the Blue Jays, over the weekend and all three games went over nine runs. This time against a far better offense, this game has a good chance of going over the total.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)