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Padres vs. Rockies Odds, Preview, Prediction: Can San Diego’s Offense Get Right at Coors Field? (Tuesday, June 15)

Padres vs. Rockies Odds, Preview, Prediction: Can San Diego’s Offense Get Right at Coors Field? (Tuesday, June 15) article feature image

Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Chi Chi Gonzalez

Padres vs. Rockies Odds

Padres Odds -245
Rockies Odds +205
Over/Under 11.5 (-105 / -115)
Time 8:40 p.m. ET
Odds as of Tuesday and via bet365.

The Padres and the Rockies are both struggling, so someone is going to pick up a much-needed series victory here to get back on track. That someone just may be the Rockies, who eked out a 3-2 win on Friday and are just a win away from their second series victory of the season.

The problem? Yu Darvish will doe the mound for San Diego, and carries a commanding 6-2 record into this one with a 2.28 ERA to back it up. It’s been nearly impossible to get runs off of the righty, so should this one be as academic as it sounds? Let’s take a look at the numbers and find out.

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Padres’ Bats Have Gone Missing

It sounds ridiculous when you type it out, but the Padres may have been better when their stars were out. Of course, Fernando Tatis Jr. is not only the best player on this team, but one of the most valuable in the game, but when he, Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer returned last month, things slowly began to go south. San Diego took care of business against the lowly Rockies and Mariners, then entered into a huge backslide, where they currently sit.

Still, the Padres are just four games back of first place in the NL West, and stand at 38-30. They have one of the most talented rosters in all of baseball, and just returned one of their most important players in Trent Grisham. San Diego’s small-ball Triple-A squad lit the NL on fire a month or so ago, but everyone and their mother knew that lineup wouldn’t be able to sustain its success. It may just take a little bit of time to get this core of Tatis, Hosmer, Myers and Grisham clicking again, and I can’t think of a better place to do it than Coors Field.

The Padres’ bats weren’t up to the challenge on Monday, scoring just two runs off of Austin Gomber, but might find things a bit easier against Chi Chi González and his 5.74 ERA. At any rate, only a few runs will probably be required with Darvish on the mound, who has been nails for the Padres this year. Darvish’s low 30.5% hard-hit rate ranks inside the top 8% in the league, and his .263 xwOBA tells that story.

González Having a Rocky Season

Like San Diego, things haven’t been great for the Rockies over the past two weeks. They’ve got an 86 wRC+, which ranks 22nd in baseball, and just a .129 Isolated Power, which puts them fifth-worst over that span.

While scoring 10 runs in Cincinnati was an improvement for a team that’s been so awful on the road, failing to carry over that offensive momentum to the tune of just three runs at Coors Field is nothing short of a disappointment, and could be a bad omen with González getting the ball.

The 29-year-old, who was once upon a time a first-round pick of the Rangers back in 2013, has been one of the league’s worst starting pitchers by the numbers. He owns a 6.50 xERA this year — one of the worst in all of baseball — after posting a 6.70 xERA last year. His issue is that he rarely strikes anyone out, but he lacks a good pitch-to-contact profile.

González features a slow fastball which clocks in around 91-92 mph, and the fact that it’s elevated has allowed for a .375 batting average against the pitch this year, which is worlds worse than last year’s mark. His slider, too, has very hittable with a .428 xwOBA this season, and the cutter that brought Gonzalez some success last year has been an afterthought in 2021.

He doesn’t profile well against a Padres team that, over the last two years, has been one of the kings of exit velocity. San Diego currently ranks second in hard-hit balls per swing, and without a strikeout pitcher on the hill for Colorado, and in one of the most hitter-friendly parks, things could get out of hand early.

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Padres-Rockies Pick

I have only taken five run lines this year, and I have hit all five. I’m going to go for six straight here with San Diego, which has been downright awful at the plate but is in too good of a spot here with Darvish on the mound. Sure, Darvish owns a 5.52 ERA in his three career starts at Coors Field, but that didn’t stop him from allowing just a run on two hits over four innings in Colorado this season.

The Rockies simply haven’t made enough quality contact lately, and Darvish isn’t exactly a guy with an affinity for allowing hard-hit balls. On the other hand, Gonzalez is one of those pitchers, and despite the Padres’ recent struggles we’ve still seen them explode over the past few weeks against poor pitching. This should be another case of just that.

Pick: Padres -1.5 (-155)

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