The Chicago Cubs host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 21, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Cubs are favored by -118 on the moneyline and by +1.5 (-194) on the run line. The Phillies are +100 on the moneyline and -1.5 (+160) on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction
- Phillies vs Cubs Picks: Cubs F5 Moneyline (-122, play to -150), Cubs Moneyline (-118, play to -140), and Under 8.5 (-122)
My Phillies vs Cubs best bets are Chicago to win the first five innings and the full game and the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Cubs Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +100 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -118 |
- Phillies vs Cubs moneyline: Phillies +100, Cubs -118
- Phillies vs Cubs over/under: 8.5 (-100o / -122u)
- Phillies vs Cubs spread: Phillies -1.5 (+160), Cubs +1.5 (-194)
Phillies vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | Stat | LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 7.94/3.59 | ERA / xERA | 2.45/2.56 |
| 2.87/1.93 | FIP / xFIP | 2.18/2.49 |
| 1.46 | WHIP | 0.77 |
| 25.5% | K-BB% | 31.7% |
| 50.0% | GB% | 21.7% |
| 112 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 101 | Location+ | 110 |
Phillies vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
If not for a pair of terrible mid-season starts, Jesus Luzardo would have been a legitimate Cy Young contender in 2025. His 3.92 ERA finished more than half a run above any of his estimators.
Move to 2026 and he's already allowed at least five runs in three of his four starts. This, despite his K-BB improving from 21% to 25.5%, his rate of barrels remaining stably better than average (6.6% to 6.3%) and his hard hit rate dropping from 37.1% to 31.7%.
Without saying he's been entirely unlucky, the bad news has been all among the less controllable aspects of a pitcher's profile. Namely a .417 BABIP, 41.7 LOB% and 23.1 HR/FB. Three of Luzardo's four barrels have left the park.
His FIP, xFIP and SIERA are all lower than last year with his xERA (3.59) only a quarter of a run higher.
Luzardo's velocity is up 0.7 mph and his pitch modeling aligns with 2025 (3.59 Bot ERA, 112 Pitching+).
There may be some sort of an adjustment needed, but this is clearly a pitcher we should expect better results from going forward.
The unfortunate thing is that he's in a very difficult spot on Tuesday, facing a lineup that held him to season worsts 10.2 SwStr% and 45.5 HardHit% last time out.
Overall, the Cubs have a 108 wRC+ at home, 125 wRC+ vs LHP and had a 150 wRC+ over the previous seven days going into Monday night's game, where they beat the Phillies 5-1.
Among projected starters (all mention of lineups are projected), only a pair of LHBs (Michael Busch & PCA) fall below a 98 wRC+ vs LHP since last season with the combined lineup averaging a 119 wRC+ over that span.
Luzardo is throwing a few less four-seamers and a few more sinkers, but still uses all four pitches in his arsenal 19.1% to 36.6% of the time. The pitch he's taken a beating on, his fastball (-3 RV) is his lone offering with failing grades (44 PitchingBot, 88 Pitching+) and almost entirely due to command/location (46/93).
There's your adjustment, perhaps, and also likely why he's throwing it less. Though throwing it just 20.4% against the Cubs last week didn't help much.
It is the pitch he matches up worst against these Cubs with, but Alex Bregman has hit changeups well since last season too.
The Cubs are solid baserunning team with Hoerner, Swanson and PCA all at 5+ BRR since last season and Luzardo is one of the worst runner holders in the league (-8 Net Bases Prevented since last year). Realmuto remains one of the best throwing catchers in the league, but he's been banged up a bit.
If Rafael Marchan gets the start, he's been above average too. The combination of Luzardo and either catcher probably makes this a neutral running spot for the Cubs, who are middle of the pack in stolen bases.
From a defensive standpoint, Bryce Harper (-3 Fielding Run Value) has been the biggest drain on this unit, though Trea Turner (-2) has regressed from a surprisingly strong 2025 (11). The Phillies have been a slightly below average defense overall.
Despite a 4.23 combined ERA, the peripherals for the Philadelphia relief corps have been second best in the league (3.15 FIP/3.48 xFIP/3.15 SIERA). They've suffered the league's third worst strand rate (64.5%) and seventh worst BABIP (.309).
Both teams' closers are on the IL, but the Phillies only used lower leverage relievers in a game they trailed all the way on Monday night and should have their healthy higher leverage guys rested for Tuesday.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Comparing Shota Imanaga's 2025 to his 2024 and 2026 seasons make it clear that he wasn't healthy last year.
K-BB%: 21, 16, 31.7
Velocity: 91.7, 90.8, 92.1
iVB: 18.3 inches, 18.0, 18.8
While his overall pitch modeling hasn't budged much in three years, his Pitching+ fastball grades have gone from 115 to 107 to 124 with improvements in both his quality of stuff and location marks.
Imanaga has struck out 20 of his last 41 batters, including 11 Phillies last time out, while allowing just two walks and three hits.
He isn't reverting to his 2024 form, he's surpassing it. While Imanaga got off to a scorching hot start with his surface results in his rookie season, his peripherals weren't nearly as good as this past month.
Despite the increase in velocity, Imanaga is throwing his fastball less often (43.1%) and his splitter more often than ever (34.8%) with the occasional sweeper (14.6%). The latter, the only one grading below average, though all are performing at an above average run value early on.
Alec Bohm is the only projected Philly bat who performs above average against Imanaga's splitter from a run value standpoint since last year, or either of his two main pitches for that matter.
While the projected Philly lineup does have a 109 wRC+ against LHP since last season, they may be missing Realmuto and are very light behind Harper with Adolis Garcia and his 85 wRC+ this season hitting cleanup and the aforementioned Bohm sitting at just a 16 wRC+ in 2026 through Sunday.
If Realmuto is out again, Justin Crawford has been their third best hitter with a 109 wRC+. The Phillies, as a team, have an 83 wRC+ on the road, 59 wRC+ vs LHP and 85 wRC+ over the last week going into Monday where they only scored one run.
For whatever faults Imanaga had on the mound last season, he's held runners well (6 Net Bases Prevented since last year). Those who have tried have been gunned down by both Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya at an above average rate since last season.
Considering Bryson Stott generally sits against lefties, Trea Turner (+3 Runs via SB) is their only legitimate base stealing threat remaining.
Defensively, the Cubs are one of the best in the league, already at a major league leading 7 Runs Prevented on the team level with the lineup vs LHP at 10 FRV. This is an extremely strong team up the middle.
As mentioned, their closer on the IL, the Chicago pen has been middling with a 4.25 FIP/3.89 xFIP/3.51 SIERA, but with better surface results than the Phillies (3.61 ERA).
Colin Rea gave them 6.2 innings on Monday night and with a four run lead, the Cubs elected to give interim closer Caleb Theilbar his first day off in three days (30 pitches). Roster Resource projected co-closer Ben Brown also threw 38 pitches on Saturday, but hasn't appeared since.
Phillies vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
Weather forecasts can and often do change overnight, especially for Wrigley, but the early projections are for temperatures in the mid-60s with winds blowing out to right-field at just a bit under 10 mph. Similar conditions have been a significant boost to run scoring and power in a moderate sample size.
However, Wrigley is a negative run environment (94 Park Run Factor via Statcast) on a neutral day. The expected weather boost (if it doesn't change much) may make it play closer to Fenway (108 PRF), but projected home plate umpire Vic Carapazza brings that back towards the pitchers close to a quarter of a run overall historically.
While I firmly believe much better days are ahead for Luzardo, this version of Imanaga may still be the slightly better pitcher right now and is also in a better spot with the Cubs projected nine owning a 10 point wRC+ edge vs LHP since last year to the Phillies and that's even with Realmuto in there.
The Cubs also have a significant defensive edge and smaller base running one.
If you're buying strictly peripherals, the Phillies have been the better bullpen by half a run. If including actual results its closer to even, though both teams suffer from the absence of their All-Star closers.
I give the Cubs a much larger F5 and overall edge than the market (-122 and -118 respectively) with a bit larger lean towards the F5, considering the bullpen instability. I would play to win 0.6 and 0.4 units accordingly to -150 and -140.
This is more a bet on the Philadelphia offense continuing their rut than Luzardo continuing his. In fact, despite the weather forecast, I'm also endorsing the under 8.5 for half a unit as well.
The Cubs have superior run prevention and a strong matchup. The Chicago offense may be the largest obstacle to a lower scoring affair, but I still believe Luzardo's unconventional struggles have pushed this number past where it should be.
Picks: Cubs F5 Moneyline (-122, play to -150), Cubs Moneyline (-118, play to -140), and Under 8.5 (-122)
