The Miami Marlins (28-42) host the Philadelphia Phillies (43-29) on Tuesday, June 17, 2025. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH and FanDuel Sports Florida.
Winners of six of their last seven games, the Phillies are -187 moneyline favorites over the Marlins on Tuesday. The game total is set at 8.5 (-112o / -108u).
Continue below to find my Phillies vs Marlins predictions and picks for Tuesday night.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Predictions, Picks
- Phillies vs Marlins pick: Under 8.5 (play to 8)
My Phillies vs Marlins best bet is the game total under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Marlins Odds, Lines
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -106 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -187 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -114 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | +152 |
Phillies vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | Stat | RHP Cal Quantrill (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | W-L | 3-7 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 4.23/3.40 | ERA /xERA | 5.61/5.21 |
| 2.65/3.07 | FIP / xFIP | 4.34/4.38 |
| 1.40 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 20.5% | K-BB% | 10.6% |
| 41.5% | GB% | 34.8% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 110 | Location+ | 101 |
Phillies vs Marlins Preview, Predictions Tonight
Phillies Betting Preview
Jesus Luzardo is very familiar with the loanDepot park mound, his former home for the past four years. This winter, Miami sent Luzardo to the city of Brotherly Love and he’s been a dazzling option in the Phillies rotation, save two starts.
You can question the legitimacy of analytics, but Luzardo is clearly better than a 4.23 ERA pitcher. His FIP is a strong 2.65 and his xERA is sitting at 3.40.
Over a two-start stretch, Luzardo allowed a jarring 21 hits and 20 earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in blowout losses to Milwaukee and Toronto. In his next outing, he held the Cubs to one run over six innings with 10 strikeouts.
The solution? Luzardo was tipping his pitches and solved the tell.
That makes me believe he’s fully back and those two starts were a blip on the radar.
Bryce Harper appeared in just three games in June before hitting the injured list. Total captain-obvious moment, but the Phillies' offense has trended downward since the highly-paid slugger went down.
They rank 17th in MLB with a 98 wRC+ in June, while ranking 24th with 12 homers and 20th in isolated power. That's where Harper's missing is huge, and Kyle Schwarber has a 64 wRC+ in June.
It's a good thing Alec Bohm, Trea Turner, and JT Realmuto are each hitting over .300 with a wRC+ better than 130. However, what Schwarber's slump and Harper's injury expose is that Philadelphia is a bit too right-handed heavy. They don't have the lefty thump if Schwarber isn't hitting like he's capable of.
Marlins Betting Preview
With the struggles of ace starter Sandy Alcantara, other Marlins hurlers need to pick up the slack.
Over his last seven starts, Cal Quantrill has been Miami's best pitcher. He had an ERA sitting over 7.50 entering May, but since posted a strong 3.58 ERA in his last 32 2/3 innings, which drops his season-long ERA to 5.61.
I'm sure a fly-ball heavy pitcher like Quantrill is grateful to be away from Colorado. He has the highest fly-ball rate of his lengthy career, but pitching in Marlins Park is perfect for him. Out of all MLB parks, Marlins Park ranks 20th in Statcast park factor and 27th in home runs.
In terms of lineup construction, the Marlins offense is archaic. I get it, as teams with lower payrolls have to get creative to try and win games, but I think we're looking at one of MLB's worst offensive teams.
Over the past 13 games, Miami ranks 19th with a 94 wRC+, while ranking 25th with 10 home runs and a .120 isolated power. On the flip side, the Marlins have the third-best strikeout rate in that span and the fourth-best BABIP.
The old adage of "good things happen when you put the ball in play" might have some substance, but it'll just result in weak-contact and quick outs against a Luzardo-level pitcher.
Phillies vs Marlins Predictions, Betting Analysis
With the combination of the Phillies' lack of power in a pitchers-friendly park, Quantrill should turn out a strong start and hold the Phillies lineup to a low run total.
I wouldn't expect much from the Marlins' offense, as Luzardo should their high BABIP signals some pretty severe regression.
They might put the ball in play, but they don't hit the ball with any force. That'll allow a stud starter like Luzardo to push for seven or eight innings.
I love the under here. This will be a lower-scoring game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (play to 8)
Moneyline
I will not be betting on either side of the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also staying away from either run line sides.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I see value on Under 8.5 for this matchup.
