The New York Yankees (56-46) host the Philadelphia Phillies (58-44) on Friday, July 25, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Yankees are surely thrilled to be out of Toronto after going just 1-6 up north this season. New York has fallen four games back in the AL East and will head back home after a much-needed day off to regroup. The Phillies come in after a series win against the Red Sox. The Phillies are just a half-game back of the Mets and will look to retake the NL East division lead in New York.
Find my Phillies vs Yankees prediction and pick below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees Prediction, Pick
- Phillies vs Yankees Pick: Over 9.5
My Yankees vs. Phillies best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Yankees Odds, Over/Under, Spread
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | -165 |
Phillies vs Yankees Probable Starting Pitchers
Phillies vs Yankees Picks, Predictions, Preview
Phillies Betting Preview: Short Leash for Walker?
Taijuan Walker was a disaster for the Phillies last season, and many Philly fans were hoping he wouldn't be part of the rotation this season.
He's bounced back and forth between the rotation and bullpen this year and has actually been serviceable. Walker has a 3.75 ERA across 21 total appearances, with 10 of those being starts.
Ideally, he would primarily be a reliever, but an early injury to Ranger Suarez and now Aaron Nola being on the injured list has forced Walker back into the rotation.
The Phillies have been keeping Walker on a short leash, as he's only averaging 4.5 innings per start and hasn't tossed more than four innings since May. Walker doesn't strike many guys out, but he uses his cutter to keep hard contact to a minimum.
For a team that has such a talented lineup, the Phillies' offense has just been mediocre this season. They rank 12th in scoring and 13th in home runs. Some of the advanced metrics are a little more favorable for Philadelphia, as it ranks 10th in wRC+ and seventh in wOBA.
Losing Bryce Harper for 20 games didn’t help, but he's been red hot since returning. Harper is hitting .323 with a 1.118 OPS in July. He has five home runs in 16 games, including his 350th career blast on Wednesday.
Kyle Schwarber also hit one deep in that game and continues to mash alongside Harper.
Yankees Betting Preview: Offense Isn't the Issue
It'll be rookie Will Warren on the mound for the Yankees, and he's looking to bounce back from a rough start in Atlanta. Warren allowed five runs, three walks and a pair of home runs in less than four innings. That brought his season ERA up to 4.91, although his xERA is down at 4.06.
Warren has good strikeout numbers (10.64 K/9), but he's really struggled with his command. His fastball has been very effective, but most of his off-speed pitches have been teed off on, especially his sweeper.
When Warren pitches well, he looks dominant. But when he struggles to locate his pitches, it can unravel big time.
For all the Yankees’ inconsistencies this season, it really hasn’t been the offense that's the issue. They rank third in the league in scoring and have the best team OPS. They have the most home runs and generate more walks than anybody.
Aaron Judge continues to prove he's the best hitter on the planet, clubbing his 37th home run last game and pacing the league with a 1.170 OPS.
The rest of the lineup has been up and down throughout the year, but one or two other guys tend to always be locked in alongside Judge.
Right now, that's been Cody Bellinger, who's hitting .347 with a 1.023 OPS in July, and Giancarlo Stanton, who's hitting .375 since the All-Star break.
Phillies vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
Both of these teams rank top-10 in the league in wRC+ and wOBA and have superstar players who can put up a crooked number with one swing.
With two pitchers that struggle with control and rank in the bottom third of the league in walk rate facing teams that are first and sixth at generating free passes, we should see a lot of base runners on Friday.
Walker pitches to contact and against a Yankees lineup that leads the league in home runs, keeping the ball in the park could prove difficult. Warren has been crushed by left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .372 wOBA to lefties, compared to .260 against righties.
That's a problem considering Philadelphia has two of the best left-handed hitters in the game. Schwarber and Harper rank second and sixth, respectively, in wOBA amongst all lefties in baseball.
Not only can I see these pitchers struggle to navigate the lineups, but these are also two of the worst defensive teams in the league. Philadelphia is an older team that ranks 27th in defensive runs saved above average and this Yankees' defense is a debacle right now.
Four ugly errors cost them their last time out, and they've been sloppy all season.
The weather is expected to be nearly 90 degrees at the start of the game, with 10 miles per hour winds blowing out. The ball should be jumping on Friday in the Bronx.
Pick: Over 9.5
Moneyline
I don't have a play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I don't have a play on the run line in this Phillies vs. Yankees battle.
Over/Under
I'm targeting the over.
