Phillies vs. Cardinals MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Bet Monday’s Favorite in St. Louis (July 11)

Phillies vs. Cardinals MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Bet Monday’s Favorite in St. Louis (July 11) article feature image

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Schwarber.

  • The Philadelphia Phillies take on the St. Louis Cardinals in Monday night MLB action.
  • Despite sitting just 2.5 games back in their division, the Cardinals have a worse chance of making the playoffs than the Phillies, according to FanGraphs.
  • Nick Shlain explains how to bet Monday's NL matchup below.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds

Phillies Odds-115
Cardinals Odds-105
Over/Under7.5 (-115 / -105)
Time7:15 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Prior to this season, MLB changed its playoff format to include three Wild Card teams from each league. That would be very important to the Phillies and the Cardinals if the season ended today.

At 46-40, the Phillies are one game ahead of the Cardinals for the third National League Wild Card spot.

The Cardinals are closer to the lead in their division, as they're 2.5 games behind the Brewers for first place in the NL Central, while the Phillies are seven games behind the Mets and also have the Braves to deal with in the NL East.

Still, FanGraphs gives the Phillies a better chance of making the playoffs (46.2%) than the Cardinals (41.2%).

While Philadelphia dropped Sunday's game to St. Louis in the late innings, the Phillies have still won seven of their last 10 games.

The Cardinals have a superb 25-18 record at home this year, but who will ultimately get the job done and bring home the victory tonight?

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Phillies Offense Has Key Edge

The Phillies lineup is currently without defending NL MVP Bryce Harper, but this is still a formidable lineup.

Kyle Schwarber has picked up the slack and blasted his 28th home run of the season Sunday in St. Louis. Darick Hall, a 26-year-old rookie first baseman, has hit four home runs in his first 10 games in the major leagues.

Philadelphia ranks fifth in all of baseball in runs per game on the road with 4.90.

Miles Mikolas is a formidable opponent for the Phillies with a 2.72 ERA in 17 starts this season. However, Mikolas doesn't totally deserve his current ERA based on his 4.41 xFIP.

He's a solid pitcher with a 19% K%, 5% BB%, and 43% ground ball percentage, but he's far from a bona fide ace pitcher. Mikolas faced the Phillies on the road two starts ago and allowed four runs and left the game without completing six innings.

I give the edge to the Phillies offense here once again.

Can Cardinals Get to Nola?

The Cardinals rank 12th in baseball in runs per game at home with 4.55.

St. Louis has a decent amount of power in its lineup, as Nolan Gorman, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Juan Yepez all have ISOs of at least .198 against right-handed pitching this season.

Aaron Nola has allowed a .172 ISO to right-handed batters and 12 home runs in 17 starts this season, so there could be a home run or two from the Cardinals.

Still, Nola has a 3.15 ERA and 3.52 xFIP on the season, and he matches up well with any offense. He's also completed at least seven innings in each of his last six starts, so we have to like his chances of pitching deep in the game.

Nola's 27% K% is identical to rotation mate Zack Wheeler, who recently beat the Cardinals but recorded just five strikeouts in the process.

The Cardinals' projected lineup has a combined K% of 22% against right-handed pitching this season, so this might not be the spot for one of Nola's strikeout-ceiling games — but he should still pitch well.

Phillies-Cardinals Pick

I'm all over the Phillies moneyline here. Philadelphia let a close game get away from it Sunday, but I'll look for it to turn the page with Nola on the mound here.

Even if Nola doesn't rack up a bunch of strikeouts, he should pitch deep into the game and leave with the lead if the Phillies offense can do its job against Mikolas, who's due for regression given the nearly two-run gap between his ERA and xFIP.

I found the Phillies moneyline at -115 on DraftKings and BetMGM, and I also like Phillies team total over 3.5 at -130. The model I use has the Phillies winning this game and scoring 4.75 runs.

Pick: Phillies ML -115

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