Phillies vs Marlins Odds, Picks & Prediction | MLB Betting Preview for Tuesday, August 1
Pictured: Sandy Alcantara and Jacob Stallings. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds
The Miami Marlins are buyers at this year’s trade deadline, and that's exciting news. In even better news for the Marlins, Sandy Alcántara may be back to his old self. He has a 3.31 ERA over his past 32 2/3 innings, which is much better than how he started this season, especially after his 2022 Cy Young campaign.
The Marlins play their division rival, the Philadelphia Phillies, in a huge series with playoff implications. It seems as if the Atlanta Braves have all but locked up the National League East, but both the Phillies and Marlins are battling for a Wild Card slot. In fact, they could both get a spot.
In order to push toward that goal, the Phillies will put forth Ranger Suárez against Alcántara on Tuesday night.
Suárez has cooled off and the Marlins can hit lefties, so let's see how we should bet Phillies vs. Marlins.
Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for Phillies vs. Marlins below.
Suárez hasn't been a viable starting option lately with a 6.11 ERA over 28 innings. On the season, he owns a 4.21 ERA against a 4.49 xERA, ok numbers for the back-end of a rotation. He also ranks in the 60th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate. That helps, but Miami has hit southpaws very well lately and could give the 27-year-old trouble.
The Phillies haven't hit righties well of late, which may bode well for Alcántara. In July, the Phillies posted a 88 wRC+ with a 7.6% walk rate and a .697 OPS. They have five bats with a xwOBA over .320, which is comparable to the Marlins, but they'll be facing a better pitcher Tuesday.
In relief, the Phillies have been below average with a 4.47 xFIP and a 8.9% walk rate. If Suárez yields six-plus hits, in addition to walks he usually permits (8.3% walk rate), it may be a long day for Philadelphia's pitching staff.
Alcántara has a 4.46 ERA and a 4.31 xERA, so, on paper, these two starters are about equal. However, Alcántara has started to turn things around. He ranks in the 57th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 38th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. He permits hard contact more often than Suárez, but has looked better in recent starts.
The Marlins have crushed lefties and have five active batters with an xwOBA over .380. They also have a 123 wRC+ and a .811 OPS.
The Marlins dealt Dylan Floro for Jorge Lopez last week. They also got David Robertson from the Mets. Those additions, along with Tanner Scott and A.J. Puk, give Miami plenty of strong options for late in the game.
Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Pick
The Marlins have an edge in every facet of this game and with Alcántara looking more like an ace, betting on him seems like an automatic play. Miami can also hit southpaws, and Suárez has struggled mightily. Since Miami also carries a clear bullpen advantage, it should be bet to -145.