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Phillies vs. Mets Betting Odds & Picks: Back New York as Favorites

Phillies vs. Mets Betting Odds & Picks: Back New York as Favorites article feature image
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Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Starling Marte

  • The Mets are favored tonight in the first game of a series against the division rival Phillies.
  • Carlos Carrasco takes the mound for New York and will be opposed by Philadelphia's Bailey Falter.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Phillies vs. Mets Odds

Phillies Odds +135
Mets Odds -160
Over/Under 8 (-120 / +100)
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets are set to kick off their fourth series of the year. To this point, the Mets have gotten the better of the Phillies in prior meetings, and it appears they will have quite the edge on the mound this evening.

Bailey Falter will open the game on the mound, and it is his second time doing so this season. He’s been dominant in short stints in Triple-A; however, we have not yet seen his game transfer well to the significant league level. This matchup could hinge on the start that Falter gives them here, as this will be a bullpen game for a bottom-tier bullpen.

Opposing him for the Mets will be Carlos “Cookie” Carrasco. The 35-year-old right-hander has put together a handful of quality outings thus far this season and may be in line for another one here.

Will the Mets continue their domination of the NL East? Or will the Phils show some fight tonight? Let’s dig in to find out.

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Carrasco To Keep Free-Swinging Phils Off-Balance

After battling through injuries and illness, Carrasco appears to have regained some of his form from his earlier days in Cleveland. Except he has reinvented himself by utilizing his entire arsenal.

Carrasco’s best outings this season have been when his slider and changeup are both on. Each of those pitches has an expected batting average of .220 and a put-away rate of over 20 percent. What makes them so effective is how he tunnels them with his fastballs. He’ll feature a four-seam fastball and a sinker on top of the off-speed pitches.

The changeup will mimic the sinker as it tails away from lefties and in to righties, but the difference in speed is what makes it so effective. Carrasco will do the same on the other side of the plate with his four-seam fastball and slider. Those methods of attack have proved to be very effective as Carrasco ranks in the top eight percent of the league in chase rate.

Philadelphia’s lineup has picked it up a bit lately, and it does have a respectable .250 team average, but the Phillies also have a great deal of swing and miss in there as well. In addition, they have the seventh-highest chase rate in the NL and the ninth-highest whiff rate. So while they are very dangerous, Carrasco could counteract that by utilizing their poor discipline against them.

Expect Mets to Mash the Phillies Pen

We have already seen the Mets exploit the Philadelphia bullpen, as the last time these two teams met, New York scored seven runs in the top of the ninth to steal a game that many thought was already over.

Including that performance, the Phillies pen has struggled mightily this year as they are 22nd in bullpen ERA. The man coming out of it to start the game may also find himself in some trouble.

Falter is a lanky left-hander who will feature a four-pitch mix but relies heavily on his fastball. He throws it more than 60 percent of the time; however, it’s been hit fair hard this season. His fastball sits at 91 mph and does not have a ton of life to it, as it ranks in the bottom one percent of the league in spin rate.

What made Falter so successful in the minors is the angle at which he delivers his pitches. He had a very high K/9 rate in Triple-A because he threw his fastball downhill and made it look much harder by mixing in his off-speed pitches. However, Major League hitters don’t appear to be fooled.

He’ll enter this start with a 3.75 ERA and a .271 BAA. While those numbers are not shockingly poor, his expected ERA is 4.56 and his FIP is 4.64. The Mets have already contributed to those numbers this year as they’ve scored a run off of him in his two-inning appearance in April.

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Phillies-Mets Pick

Coming off their series loss to San Francisco, the Mets are raring to get back on track against the Phillies. Joe Girardi has given them the opportunity to do so by leaning on his porous bullpen to start the series.

Needless to say, the Mets will get to one of, if not many of the arms to come out of the Phillies pen while Carlos Carrasco keeps the Phils’ bats in check.

Back the Mets to take the opener here.

Pick: Mets -150 (Play to -165)

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