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Phillies vs Nationals Expert Picks Today | Sunday MLB Betting Preview (October 2)

Phillies vs Nationals Expert Picks Today | Sunday MLB Betting Preview (October 2) article feature image

AP Photo/Nick Wass. Pictured: Bryce Harper.

  • It's the final matchup of the year between the Phillies and Nationals.
  • Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies, and Patrick Corbin will take the ball for the Nationals.
  • Tony Sartori previews the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds

Phillies Odds-245
Nationals Odds+205
Over/Under8 (+105/-115)
Time1:35 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the fourth and final game of this NL East intradivisional series with the Washington Nationals hosting the Philadelphia Phillies. Fighting for their playoff lives, the Phillies are in desperate need of a win.

Can they get it done as large road favorites, or will the Nationals pull off the upset?

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Philadelphia Phillies: Which Wheeler Will Show Up?

Taking the mound for Philadelphia is right-hander Zack Wheeler. Through 25 starts this season, he is 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.

While those are some outstanding numbers, Wheeler is a highly inconsistent pitcher with extreme highs or lows. This trend has been evidenced over his past four starts as he gave up four-plus runs twice and then just one combined run in the other two outings.

We could see the poor end of this spectrum in this matchup as Wheeler has struggled against Washington in his career. Through 27 starts against the Nationals, Wheeler is 9-14 with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.

These weaker outings have led to more high-scoring games as there have been more than eight runs scored in each of his past three starts against Washington. Following Wheeler is one of the coldest bullpens in baseball.

Since September 1, Philadelphia's relief pitching ranks 25th in the league in ERA, 27th in WHIP, 23rd in BA and 24th in wOBA. However, this pitching staff should get plenty of run support as the Phillies are slated to go against left-hander Patrick Corbin.

Through 232 career plate appearances against Corbin, this current Philadelphia roster boasts a .317 BA, .563 SLG, and .400 wOBA.

Washington Nationals: Can Corbin Finish On High Note?

As mentioned above, left-hander Patrick Corbin is taking the mound for Washington. Perhaps the best fade in baseball this season, Corbin is 6-18 with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP through 30 starts.

His metrics are just as bad as you would expect. He's posted a .382 xwOBA, .305 xBA and .523 xSLG. As a result, we have seen eight or more runs scored in nine of Corbin's past 12 starts.

That poor pitching should continue against Philadelphia, a team that has shelled him over the past two years. Across his past six starts against the Phillies, Corbin is 0-5 with an 8.78 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP.

There were eight or more runs scored in each of those six outings. Following Corbin is an inconsistent bullpen.

Since September 1, Washington's relief pitching ranks 24th in BA, 23rd in SLG and 23rd in wOBA. However, this pitching staff should get decent run support as the Nationals are slated to go against right-hander Zack Wheeler.

When facing right-handed pitching, Washington ranks second in BA, 14th in SLG, 11th in OPS and 12th in wOBA since the beginning of September. Through 100 career plate appearances against Wheeler, this current Nationals roster possesses a .267 xBA, .412 xSLG, and .295 xwOBA.

Phillies-Nationals Pick

It makes sense that this total is only set at eight. While Wheeler has had some tough outings against Washington in the past, he is one of the better pitchers in the National League when he is dialed in.

However, I like this number regardless of who is going against Corbin. As one of the most fade-worthy pitchers in the league, the over has been a great bet all season in games Corbin has started.

Washington has been hitting right-handers well of late and the Phillies are throwing out a powerful lineup against one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Going with the trends mentioned above, I like this game to go over eight total runs.

Pick: Phillies/Nationals o8 (+100) | Play up to (-120)

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