Phillies vs Padres Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Tuesday, September 5

The race for October rolls on Tuesday when the Philadelphia Phillies look to send the San Diego Padres further down the standings by sending Michael Lorenzen back to the hill.

After a thrilling victory on Monday night, will San Diego have a response to level this series?

Let's break this one down in our Phillies vs Padres preview and prediction.

Let's start here with Lorenzen, whose Phillies tenure has been something of a roller coaster to this point. He experienced the highest of highs with eight innings of two-run ball in his debut, and he followed that up with a no-hitter. He was then shelled by the Nationals in D.C. and again gave up four runs in a no-decision against the Giants.

Last time out, he turned in a rocky quality start which was pretty much what we've come to expect more often than not from the veteran righty.

Lorenzen has now given up five home runs in his last three starts, and while he's been dynamite in the walk department this year, he's issued 11 free passes in 32 innings thus far for Philly. Around that, he's really just given up an inordinate number of hits and found himself with a .251 xBA in August, meaning he wasn't really unfortunate — he deserved his fate.

The thing about this game is that the pitching matchup may not even matter with the way this offense is running. The Phillies have the best wRC+ in baseball over the last two weeks on account of their 30 home runs, and as a result own an insane .299 ISO. They're walking at a 9.9% clip and striking out just 19.8% of the time over that period.

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Despite the fact that the Padres are still 6 1/2 games out of the wild-card in the NL, they're still going down swinging. I don't say that to joke that they're striking out in most plate appearances, I say it in earnest — this team is hitting the ball now that the deficit is almost unrecoverable.

San Diego has been more or less equal with Philadelphia in the plate discipline numbers, and it ranks 10th in wRC+. This is surely a win for a side which has struggled to hit all year, but its .157 in the last two weeks is a rather meek number considering the many talented power hitters in this lineup.

In addition, the Padres are just 19th in runs scored during those two weeks and their .259 batting average may be due for some regression considering their .299 BABIP.

The starting pitcher for the Fathers tonight is Pedro Avila, a guy who is very tough to get a read on.

Is he good? He does own a 2.67 ERA in 30 1/3 innings this year with a decent 3.59 xERA, including one solid start against the Dodgers. In his last two starts, he's totaled 7 1/3 innings and allowed six runs on 11 hits and four walks.

Considering he pitched to a 8.57 ERA in 55 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year and owns a 4.28 career ERA, I'd say he's not good. He's done well to limit the home runs, but he's been burned by walks over the last few years and has not racked up the strikeouts you'd like to see at the minor-league level.

I find it very hard to argue against playing an offense this hot as road underdogs. While the Padres have hit well, and Lorenzen isn't without his issues, I think there's reason to believe this will be the Phillies' night.

The Padres are just 18th in run value against fastballs this year and Lorenzen still has one of the better four-seam deliveries in baseball. On top of that, while the right-hander has been burned by home runs in recent weeks, the Padres have been relying an unsustainable level of contact hitting and their meek ISO should give you confidence that Lorenzen can keep the ball in the yard.

I don't trust Avila at this level against an offense this talented. Even if he's limited home runs, the Phillies have still hit .284 over the last week with a patient eye. He should not fare very well here.