Pirates vs Mets Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, August 14
Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Carrasco
Pirates vs. Mets Odds
The first installment of this three-game series gets underway Monday evening as the NL East's New York Mets host the NL Central's Pittsburgh Pirates.
Not a whole lot is on the line in this series other than pride, as both clubs are running out of time with each sitting 8.5 games back of the last wild-card spot in the National League.
Will the Mets defend their home diamond, or can the Pirates pull off the upset?
Here's a look at the odds and my Pirates vs. Mets betting pick and prediction.
After a solid start to the campaign, the Pirates have cooled down mightily over the past couple of months. Specifically, the bats are to blame for this regression.
Entering this series, Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom third of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs. With that said, one of the only hitting statistics that this lineup does not rank in the bottom third of the league in is K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Monday's projected starting lineup, four of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 22% this season. Perhaps this lineup can hold its own against right-hander Carlos Carrasco.
Not only has it been a disastrous campaign for the Mets, but it has been a particularly difficult year for Carrasco. Through 17 starts, the veteran right-hander is 3-6 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.
While those surface-level stats are poor, his underlying metrics also suggest that positive regression is unlikely. Carrasco ranks in the ninth percentile or lower in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
Specifically, we're going to fade the right-hander in the strikeout department. Entering this matchup, Carrasco ranks in the sixth percentile in K% and 35th percentile in Whiff%.
Pirates vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
Carrasco's strikeout woes are likely to continue against Pittsburgh. In a start against the Pirates earlier this season, the right-hander surrendered two runs on six hits while collecting just one strikeout in 4 2/3 innings.
The current iteration of Pittsburgh's lineup owns a mere 20.9 K% and 18.8 Whiff% through 43 career plate appearances against Carrasco.
You can find his strikeout prop at 4.5 at DraftKings, a number he has failed to surpass in 13 of his 17 starts this season.