Mets vs Pirates Pick Today | MLB Odds, Predictions (April 16)
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Jared Jones (left) and Jose Quintana (right).
Mets vs. Pirates Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -102 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -116 |
The New York Mets took the first game of this series on Monday as they rallied late against the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen.
But tonight, all eyes will be on the starters.
Fireballing rookie Jared Jones will take the ball for the Pirates, and crafty veteran Jose Quintana will oppose him. This matchup is very intriguing as the two have opposite styles, but both have avenues for success.
Let's review our Mets vs. Pirates prediction and pick for Tuesday, April 16.
To the surprise of many, the Pirates come into this contest tied for the lead in NL Central.
However, their early-season run is a testament to this club's potential. The Bucs' lineup has plenty of upside, as it's filled with young talent being groomed at the major league level.
Unfortunately, the thing with young talent is that it tends to be streaky, and many signs are pointing towards a downward trend for this lineup.
The first issue is that they are not consistently making hard contact. Pittsburgh ranks last in average exit velocity and boasts the third-lowest average launch angle.
The second issue is the Pirates strike out a lot. The Pirates have the tenth-highest team strikeout rate in baseball.
Lastly, this all plays into the strengths of Mets' starter Quintana. Quinanta has been excellent at working his way around traffic through his first few starts of the season, but inducing ground balls is his game.
Quintana boasts a career 45% ground-ball rate and is due for positive regression in that category. The Pirates are the team that should raise that rate.
So, expect the Pirates to have plenty of quick outs with Quintana executing low in the zone.
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The Mets lineup is why they have bounced back from an 0-5 start to the season.
The club is back at .500 following Monday's win, and their lineup is due for more positive regression.
New York's xBA is nine points higher than its current team batting average, and its xSLG is 25 points higher than its actual team slugging percentage.
However, one man who can put that upward trend on hold tonight is Pirates starter Jones.
Jones has some of the most electric stuff in baseball and has nearly been unhittable through his first three big-league starts. He ranks in the top 8% of all qualified pitchers in whiff, chase, strikeout, and walk rates.
The only issue with Jones' high-velocity arsenal has been when he's allowed contact, it's been hard contact. Jones ranks in the bottom 5% of pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed, with much of it coming off his fastball.
New York doesn't strike out often, as it has the third-lowest strikeout rate in baseball. Still, if Jones can command his fastball and tunnel his slider off it, this could be a long night at the dish for the blue and orange.
Pirates vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
The starters are the men to watch in tonight's matchup, as we could see a pitcher's duel in the early going.
The market has reacted to this notion as we've seen the total drop since opening.
However, the under is a strong play here because of the depth of these pitching staffs, not just the probable success of both starters. Both bullpens have been solid to begin the season, as they each rank in the league's top half in reliever ERA.
So, while we may see the runs come late in this one, don't count on this game being blown open.
Take the Under.
Pick: Under 8
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