The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 10, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Cubs are favored by -154 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +130 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction
- Pirates vs Cubs Pick: Under 1.5 Home Runs + Shota Imanaga H2H Strikeouts Winner (-105 Parlay)
My Pirates vs Cubs best bet is this same-game parlay. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Cubs Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 6.5 -122o / -100u | +130 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 6.5 -122o / -100u | -154 |
- Pirates vs Cubs spread: Pirates +1.5 (-170), Cubs -1.5 (+140)
- Pirates vs Cubs over/under: 6.5 (-122o / -100u)
- Pirates vs Cubs moneyline: Pirates +130, Cubs -154
Pirates vs Cubs Pitchers
| Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP) | Stat | Shota Imanaga (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 4.00 / 3.40 | ERA / xERA | 4.50 / 3.03 |
| 1.26 / 1.96 | FIP / xFIP | 3.15 / 3.48 |
| 1.56 | WHIP | 1.20 |
| 24.4% | K-BB% | 19.5% |
| 52.0% | GB% | 22.2% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 109 | Location+ | 112 |
Pirates vs Cubs Preview
Is that a 6.5-run total?
That's what happens when it's around 45 degrees in Wrigley with the winds blowing it.
Home runs have been tough to come by in the northern and eastern parts of the country so far. The league barrel rate is down half a point, and those barrels are traveling seven feet shorter compared to last year. There have been 0.91 home runs hit per game this year. Last year, the number was 1.16.
We have a matchup of two pretty good pitching staffs here as well, so it should be a pretty low-scoring game.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
It's Carmen Mlodzinski for the Pirates. He's a converted reliever who has begun the year in the Pirates' rotation with a mixed bag of results.
The good news is that he's posted 13 strikeouts to three walks through two outings. The bad news is that he's allowed 11 hits while consistently being unable to pitch deep into games.
Mlodzinski is a guy that the opposing lineup quickly figures out. For his career, he has allowed a .220 batting average the first time through the lineup, a .274 mark the second time, and then a .354 mark the third time through. His career ERA in innings 1-2 is 1.26, but it bloats to 7.68 in innings 3-5.
The books are wisely setting his outs recorded line at 14.5. He has made 19 career starts and has finished the fifth inning in just three of them (16%).
Shota Imanaga has the advantage in the pitching matchup.
But one thing I want to mention is Mlodzinski's ability to keep the ball on the ground. He's posted a strong 49% ground-ball rate over the past two seasons. This year, it's kicked up to 52%. That seems to be a sustainable increase, because he's throwing the slider (a fly ball pitch) way less frequently this year, in favor of splitters, curves, and sinkers.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
On the other side is a starting pitcher who is no stranger to giving up the long ball. Imanaga leads all qualified starting pitchers in fly ball rate dating back to last year.
But everything is working in his favor today.
We've already mentioned the weather, which is going to suppress the souvenir. But another thing to know is that this Pirates lineup is weak against lefties. Jake Mangum, Nick Gonzales, Nick Yorke, and Henry Davis are all likely to be in the lineup. Those are all sub-15 homer guys over a full season.
Young phenom Konnor Griffin has a near 70% ground ball rate so far — he's having trouble lifting the ball early on, which was not unexpected.
The guys who do have power are mostly left-handed (Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn). The Pirates' lineup is built for scoring runs at home against righties. They do not profile well at all in these spots.
Everything is working toward a game with very little trotting.
Pirates vs Cubs Picks
The books aren't giving us a friendly line. They have woken up to the under home runs bet after this start to the year.
I believe some people have even posted about no longer being able to parlay a bunch of "no home runs" bets together.
Under 1.5 home runs feels very likely to hit. On DraftKings, it's -185.
But we can drain the juice by also working the angle that Imanaga is the much better pitcher, in terms of skill and volume.
I'm tagging on Imanaga head-to-head Strikeouts Winner (-346) against Mlodzinski to create a -105 same-game parlay.
He's the better pitcher in the better matchup and is very likely to throw an inning or two more than Mlodzinski.
Pick: Under 1.5 Home Runs + Shota Imanaga H2H Strikeouts Winner (-105 Parlay)
