Rays vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Series’ F5 Under Trend to Continue (Wednesday, August 17)

Rays vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Series’ F5 Under Trend to Continue (Wednesday, August 17) article feature image

Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Corey Kluber

  • The Rays are 2-0 in this series, which has featured a pair of low-scoring games.
  • Expect quality starts from Yankees' pitcher Domingo German and the Rays' Cory Kluber.
  • Doug Ziefel sees value with the F5 under.

Rays vs. Yankees Odds

Rays Odds+105
Yankees Odds-130
Over/Under8.5 (-110/-110)
Time7:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The market has hammered this game overnight as the Yankees have dropped the first two games in this series. Those losses have now made New York losers in 11 of their last 13 games. A team that once was the consensus best in baseball is in the midst of a horrid slump, and the market has begun to take its stance. The pitching matchup is also not doing the Bronx Bombers any favors.

Domingo German will get the ball for his sixth start of the season, and while the Yankee has been progressing with every start, his underlying numbers tell a very different story.

Toeing the slab for Tampa Bay will be Corey Kluber. The 36-year-old right-hander has had his share of highs and lows this season, and he is coming off one of his lowest performances of the season after the Baltimore Orioles tagged him for seven runs on 10 hits. However, he may be catching the Yankees at the right time as he aims to bounce back.

Look For Another Quality Outing from German

The Tampa Bay Rays have been a middle-of-the-road lineup this season as they excel against lefties, like last night when they ambushed Nestor Cortes, but struggle against righties. The Rays enter tonight's matchup ranking 23rd in batting average and 24th in wOBA against righties.

Domingo German's metrics are not in line to take advantage of the Rays' struggles against right-handed pitching. He's allowed righties to hit .304 and has a 5.17 FIP against them, but he's been a tad better against lefties, which is good for him as he will see quite a few in Tampa's lineup tonight.

His stat lines from recent outings are far better. German has not allowed more than two earned runs in four of his five starts. Every start he's made this season has come against a far better offense than that of the Rays.

German's first five starts have given us a preview of how he'll handle this Rays' lineup and whether or not he should be successful. He'll use his curveball to lefties and righties but will then work the lefties away with his fastball and change-up. Against righties, he'll pound them in with his sinker almost exclusively. His sinker has been very effective and has a .167 BAA on the year. German should be in line for a successful outing if he can command his arsenal and work both sides of the plate.

Expect the Yankees to be Dormant Against Kluber

In the open, I highlighted how hard Cory Kluber was hit in his last outing, but there are many indications that he is set to bounce back in a big way tonight. What has made Kluber successful this season is his ablity to create soft contact. He ranks in the top 35 percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel rates. The veteran has also displayed excellent command as his walk and chase rates are among the top 5 percent in baseball.

Those metrics make Kluber the perfect guy to accentuate the Yankees' struggles since the All-Star break. New York is hitting just .232 as a team and has a .273 BABIP since July 15. Those numbers rank 24th and 28th, respectively.

We have also already seen Kluber have success against the Yankees this season. In two starts, he's thrown 12 innings and allowed just one run while striking out eight. However, he's also due for even more positive regression against this lineup. For his career, the current Yankees lineup has hit .283 off Kluber, but his xBA is 50 points lower at .233.

Rays-Yankees Pick

The under has cashed in the first two games of this series on account of the Yankees' slumping offense and excellent pitching from both sides. That trend is in line to continue in tonight's matchup as both starters are trending in the right direction.

Kluber has been massively underrated this season, and German's one rough outing has inflated his metrics. So while I agree with the significant market movement towards Tampa, the best angle for this matchup is the first five under.

Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-120)

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