Zylbert: Will Betting the Over Come Through Again in ALCS?

Zylbert: Will Betting the Over Come Through Again in ALCS? article feature image
Credit:

Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Red Sox pitcher David Price (24) reacts during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park.

Betting odds: Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros

  • Over/under: 8
  • First pitch: 8:09 p.m. ET
  • Probable pitchers: David Price (16-7, 3.58 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA)
  • TV channel: TBS

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record

  • Regular Season: 102-73-4, +21.45 units
  • Postseason: 5-8-1, -4.5 units
  • Yesterday’s Result: Red Sox-Astros Under 8.5, Porcello vs. Morton (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


There’s always an extra layer of info to consider when dealing with a potential elimination game in the postseason.

Tonight in Houston, the Red Sox will try to wrap up the American League Championship Series at the expense of the defending champion Astros, who find themselves in a 3-1 series deficit.

Fortunately for the Astros, they’ll be rolling with their ace Verlander on the hill.

The 2011 AL Cy Young award winner is as proven as any pitcher in these high-pressure situations: According to NESN.com, he’s made five such starts, going 4-1 with a dazzling 1.21 ERA.

Considering that this over/under line currently sits at 8, Verlander could put under bettors in a very favorable spot if he’s able to have one of his typical October outings.

Verlander was tasked with saving his club from elimination as recent as a season ago, when he stifled the Yankees in seven shutout innings to force a Game 7 in the ALCS.

Verlander has had consistent success against Boston in Game 1 of this series last Saturday night by striking out six in a quality start. He also produced a quality start with six Ks in his lone meeting with them during the regular season.

In betting this under, we figure to also benefit from Verlander being at home in. Since joining the Astros late in the 2017 campaign, the 35-year-old has made 25 starts at Minute Maid Park (including postseason), pitching to the tune of a 2.44 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 12.31 K/9.

Anything close to that would terrific for this bet.

Price, the other starter set for Game 5,, is on the opposite end of the spectrum as it relates to postseason success. Nonetheless, based on his last start in Game 2, I think he can come through in tonight’s outing.

Yes, the numbers weren’t anything special, as Price did not make it through the fifth, giving up four runs in his 4.2 innings of work.

But he pitched better than his final stat line, and the effort still represented a step in the right direction. While Price did not gain a “W” for his personal record, it was still the first time that his team won when he started a postseason game this year.

Perhaps most importantly as it pertains to this start, there’s not nearly as much pressure on Price compared to his previous turn (the Red Sox were down 1-0 in the series).

Here, he can be more loose and relaxed. And he’s also embracing the opportunity to vault his team into the World Series, calling it “very cool” and “neat.”

I like where his mindset is and think that he’ll at least hang in there to keep up with Verlander.

At the very least, one of these starters figures to look really strong this evening. We’ll count on that to lead the way to an under.

Play: UNDER 8 (-110)