Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Saturday, May 6
Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Rafael Devers (Red Sox)
- The Red Sox look to extend their seven-game winning streak in the second matchup of their series vs. the Phillies.
- Bailey Falter (Philadelphia) and Corey Kluber (Boston) take the mound for this game, which has Nick Martin targeting the total.
- Read his betting preview below and get his top pick for this interleague tilt.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds
|Red Sox Odds|
-106 / -114
-106 / -114
Boston will look to extend its winning streak to eight in game two of this interleague series at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday.
The Red Sox beat up on Zack Wheeler in the series opener, and will look to do the same against a much softer target in Bailey Falter. Falter has a 5.01 ERA in 32 1/3 innings this season.
The Phillies could be in a great position to do some damage offensively, as they’re facing off against veteran righty Corey Kluber, who’s posted a 6.44 ERA in 29 innings.
Boston continued its dominant play at the plate in the series opener, as it tagged Wheeler for four earned runs and seven hits in seven innings.
Over the last 30 days, the Red Sox rank third in baseball with a wRC+ of 117. They’ve slugged .459 with a .349 wOBA.
Questions about how Masataka Yoshida would fare against MLB pitching have been thoroughly answered, and his elite .948 OPS has been a big part of the Red Sox’s offense.
Jarren Duran continues to be another great story, and overall, Boston’s offense appears likely to continue achieving quality results.
The Red Sox have been the third-most productive team in the league against the fastball and curveball, respectively, by pitch value, which should work in their favor against Falter.
The far more concerning situation for Boston remains its pitching.
The Red Sox own a 24th-worst team ERA of 4.81. A positive start from Chris Sale on Friday was a highly encouraging sign, but it seems unlikely they’ll see a similar performance on Saturday.
Kluber has struggled, posting a 5.57 xERA and 1.40 WHIP in 29 innings to start his 37-year-old season. His walk rate has gone from being a considerable strength last season to being well below average at 9.2%.
It’s likely he’ll see positive regression on that front, but that won’t necessarily mean far better results.
His stuff is now rating well below league average, and the more he’s in the zone, the more batters should continue to find hard contact.
Philadelphia’s starting pitching situation for this contest is not much more convincing than Boston’s.
And behind that lies a bullpen that owns a 5.40 ERA this season and has been in shambles of late.
Falter has pitched to a 4.98 xERA while being hard-hit 40.6% of the time. He’s pitched to a very poor xFIP of 4.79.
His stuff rates very poorly, and that’s being reflected with his lowly 16.3% K-rate.
The Phillies have hit to a 13th-ranked wRC+ of 103, with a .329 wOBA.
Some of the Phillies’ high end pieces really haven’t clicked into top form, and specifically, it’s surprising to see them rank 18th overall in home runs hit playing out of Citizens Bank Park.
Philly has also hit considerably better vs. right-handed pitching, with a 110 wRC+ in 825 PA’s.
Bryce Harper’s return to the lineup could also help fuel an offensive upswing. In a tiny sample size Harper has fared well so far, with four hits in 11 ABs and a .556 OBP %.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Betting Pick
Saturday’s contest could easily turn into a full blown offensive shootout. Both starting pitchers have been in suspect form to start the year and don’t seem likely to trend upwards moving forward.
Considering the talent on hand, the Phillies’ offense should trend into better form after a slow start to the season.
They’re showing some good signs, most notably that Harper is back in the mix and looking dangerous. They’ll make life tough for Kluber and a middling Sox bullpen in this matchup.
Boston’s offense has been in incredible form of late as well and should be able to get to Falter, who’s xSLG rates remain very high.
I think we have value backing this one to go over 9.5 at -110, and I would play 9.5 to -130.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110)
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