Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Expert Picks for Friday, June 9
Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Red Sox RHP Garrett Whitlock
- The Red Sox head to the Bronx to open their series with the Yankees.
- Boston is a road underdog, but our expert believes New York is in for some regression tonight.
- Find out why he's backing the Red Sox over Gerrit Cole and the Yankees bullpen.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds
|Red Sox Odds|
-114 / -106
One of baseball's most storied rivalries will add another chapter tonight as the Boston Red Sox take on the New York Yankees in the Bronx. While this rivalry was once a battle of American League titans, each team comes in scuffling.
Boston has won just three of its last 10 ball games and suffered a bad loss yesterday to the Cleveland Guardians. As for the Yankees, they were able to salvage their series with the White Sox, but their lineup has a glaring hole in it with Aaron Judge's absence.
Who will take the opening game of this series? Let's take a closer look to find out.
The Red Sox have remained afloat in the gauntlet that is the AL East. While they are one game under .500 and 14 games out, their record is much better than the majority of the National League.
A big reason why is their offense. The Red Sox are hitting .260 as a team and are in the top half of the league in hard-hit rate. While they may have a tall task in front of them tonight, the numbers show it's not an insurmountable one.
Gerrit Cole has been tremendous this season, but he is due to come back to earth. His ERA of 2.82 is sparkling, but his xERA, FIP and SIERA, which are all closer to four, tell a better story.
His average exit velocity and hard-hit rates have fallen to league-average rates, and this Red Sox lineup is the one to begin Cole's regression. Additionally, the current Red Sox order has hit Cole well in the past.
They have accumulated 125 at-bats against Cole and are hitting .256 with an average exit velocity of 92.1 mph over that span. There is quite a bit of swing-and-miss in that sample size, but when they make contact, damage is done.
Lastly, Cole is not the only Yankees arm due for regression. New York's bullpen boasts the best pen ERA in the majors, but their FIP of 3.76 and SIERA of 3.73 point to some rough appearances ahead.
The Yankees were able to get the bats going in their double-header against Chicago yesterday, but this lineup is not nearly as dangerous without Aaron Judge. Yes, the Yankees are 11th in xwOBACON and are due for positive regression at the dish, but much of that hard contact was spurred by the tremendous stretch Judge was on.
Tonight the Yankees will face Garrett Whitlock. Whitlock has been on and off the IL in the early part of the season but has done an excellent job creating soft contact through his five starts.
His hard-hit rate sits in the 60th percentile of all qualified pitchers, which is a key indicator of positive regression. His xERA is a full run lower than his season ERA, and his FiP is not far behind.
Whitlock should be able to contain the Yankees lineup through the first five innings before handing the game over to the bullpen.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Betting Pick
These two teams may be trending in opposite directions entering this matchup, but they are in line to switch roles tonight. Look for the Red Sox to give Cole a run for his money before they do damage against the Yankees' over-achieving bullpen.
It will be critical for Whitlock to keep the ball in the yard, but he should be able to do so against a hampered New York lineup.
Given the state the Yankees lineup is in and the impending pitching regression, Boston should not be this big of an underdog.
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