Reds vs Brewers Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Tuesday, July 25
Pictured: Corbin Burnes. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Reds vs. Brewers Odds
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
One night after their five-game winning streak was snapped by the Brewers, the Reds will be out for revenge on Tuesday in Milwaukee with Andrew Abbott heading to the bump against Corbin Burnes.
Will Burnes continue to be one of the best pitchers in baseball for the month of July, or can this exciting young offense touch up the former Cy Young Award winner?
Let's break this one down in our Reds vs. Brewers preview and prediction.
The Reds will send another one of their bright young arms to the hill on Tuesday in the form of Abbott, who has impressed early in his big-league career to the tune of a 2.10 ERA in 55 2/3 innings. He's all too familiar with the Brewers, whom he's already faced three times in nine starts.
Those outings have all been a huge roller coaster. While he did manage to spin six shutout innings against Milwaukee in his big-league debut last month and limited the Brewers to just two runs over six a couple of weeks ago, he also surrendered six earned over 4 1/3 innings three weeks ago in Milwaukee.
All told, he's posted a 4.41 ERA against this team in 16 1/3 innings, and even in the outings where he limited the damage, he didn't exactly pitch perfectly. Abbott walked four in his debut and has gave up four home runs in his last two starts against the Brewers.
While I think Abbott is a very talented pitcher, it's clear he's been a bit fortunate to have his shiny 2.10 ERA. His 3.44 xERA tells a slightly different story, and his 95.5% strand rate tells a much different one. When you consider it was also 94.2% in Triple-A this season, we're looking at one very lucky pitcher.
Abbott can certainly strike guys out, with a 34.8% strikeout rate down in the minors this year and a mark of 26.8% at the big league level, but his walk issues and run of good luck are huge warning signs, particularly for a guy who doesn't roll up a ton of ground balls.
While many have fallen victim to this high-powered Reds offense, Burnes hasn't seemed too impressed. The Brewers' ace owns a 2.50 ERA in three starts against Cincinnati this year, striking out 26 in just 18 innings pitched. He's allowed just seven hits, though 10 walks have certainly been less than ideal.
Still, we can have plenty of confidence in Burnes here. Not only has he shut down the Reds on multiple occasions, he's also looked like the best pitcher in the world since the calendar turned to July.
After a 4.99 ERA in June, Burnes has made four starts this month and allowed just two runs in 27 innings to post a 1.33 ERA. He's struck out 36 this month, including 23 punchouts over the last two starts. He's faced the Reds twice in July, striking out 19 in 12 innings.
That's where the nice things will end for the Brewers in this section. Their offense remains abysmal with a 78 wRC+ over the last two weeks, though their walk rate is a solid 9.8%.
Reds vs. Brewers Betting Pick
I never like betting on the Brewers because they simply can't hit, but it appears that I'm left with no choice here. Burnes has been untouchable in his last four starts and seems to own this young Reds team.
On the other hand, Abbott has been an incredibly lucky pitcher and has twice looked shaky against Milwaukee. Even without the history, I still think a pitcher with walk issues is about the only person who would struggle to pitch to this Brewers lineup.
I'm backing Burnes to bring us home.
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