Reds vs. Mets MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Fade Heavily Favored New York in a Let Down Spot (Monday, August 8)
Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Joey Votto
- The Mets are heavy home favorites on Monday night against the Reds.
- The Mets are coming off of a huge series sweep against the Braves, but is this a let down spot that lends value to betting the Reds?
- Mike Ianniello breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Reds vs. Mets Odds
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
Remember when the Reds were the worst team in baseball? They were historically bad early on, but they have somehow managed to right the ship a bit, climbing into third in the NL East standings. Cincinnati is 15-9 since July 8th, the fifth-best mark in the National League.
Over that same span, the Mets have gone 18-8, the second-best record in baseball. Just when everybody keeps expecting that usual Mets collapse, they keep things rolling along. After taking four out of five against Atlanta, this weekend, they now hold a 6.5-game lead over the Braves in the NL East.
The Mets are rolling right now, but will they have a let down coming off a big series win against their division rivals?
Shorthanded Reds Need Justin Dunn to Step Up
Former Mets first round pick Justin Dunn will make his first start with Cincinnati on Monday. The 26-year-old has already been part of two blockbuster trades. In December 2018, the Mets traded Dunn, along with Jay Bruce, Jarred Kelenic, and two other prospects, to Seattle for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano. He made 25 starts for the Mariners over the last three years, racking up a 3.94 ERA.
In March of 2022, Seattle sent Dunn to the Reds with Jake Fraley and Brandon Williamson in exchange for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker. He started this season on the Injured List with a shoulder injury but will now be asked to fill a role in Cincinnati’s rotation after trading away Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle and an injury to Hunter Greene. He struggled a bit in his rehab assignment, going 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA in seven starts for Triple-A Louisville.
Cincinnati’s offense ranks just 22nd in wOBA and 27th in wRC+, and that includes playing half their games in one of the league’s most hitter-friendly ballparks. They are 29th in the league on the road this season and now go from one of the most hitter-friendly parks to one of the most pitcher-friendly ones.
Only two players have a wRC+ above 120 or wOBA over .350 for the Reds this season: Tyler Stephenson, who is out for the year with a broken collarbone, and Brandon Drury, who was traded to the Padres.
Can the Mets Help Bassitt Improve His Home Record?
Chris Bassitt has been really solid in his first season in New York, posting a 3.61 ERA and 3.17 xERA. If you ever needed evidence that wins and losses aren’t an accurate depiction of a pitcher, look at Bassitt. He has a 3.06 ERA at home this year but only a 2-5 record. On the road though, he has gone 6-2 despite a 4.24 ERA.
Consistency has been key for Bassitt. In 20 starts, he has pitched at least six innings 18 times. He ranks in the top 15 in the NL in both innings pitched and strikeouts. Bassitt doesn’t give up hard contact, ranking in the top five percent of the league in Average Exit Velocity.
New York made some big moves this offseason, and they have really paid off. The Mets sit top five in both wOBA and wRC+ and have scored the third-most runs in the league. The Mets have also been especially strong against right-handed pitching.
The deadline deals the Mets made to gear up for the postseason have already started to pay off, including their acquisition from the Reds, Tyler Naquin. In eight games with New York, he is batting .348 with two runs and four RBIs.
If you blindly bet $100 on every MLB team that was an underdog of at least +225, you would be up $2,363 with a 38.7% ROI this season.
I know the Reds are still a bad team, but they’re playing winning baseball over the last 30 days, and +290 is just a ridiculous price.
The Mets just played five games against their division rivals and the defending World Series champions. A big series win gave them some distance in the division race, and we could see a let down spot here on Monday.
Dunn is making his first start of the season with his new team against the team that drafted him in the first round and traded him away two years later.
Take a shot on the heavy underdog Reds on Monday night.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds +290 | Play to +250