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Rockies vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on the Total in Arizona (Thursday, July 7)

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on the Total in Arizona (Thursday, July 7) article feature image
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Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Kris Bryant #23 of the Colorado Rockies.

  • The Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks kick off their four-game series Thursday night at Chase field.
  • Both teams are trotting out struggling starting pitchers -- Austin Gomber for the Rockies, Dallas Keuchal for the Diamondbacks.
  • Alex Hinton explains why that puts value on the total tonight.

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Rockies Odds -115
Diamondbacks Odds -105
Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-115)
Time 9:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks will come into this one quite familiar with one another after meeting last weekend in Colorado. The Rockies took two out of three to even the season series at three wins apiece.

The Rockies began the week in Los Angeles where they were swept by the Dodgers. Last night’s loss was especially painful as the Dodgers walked off on Mookie Betts’ infield single.

The Diamondbacks returned home where they two out of three from the Giants, though suffered a 7-5 loss last night. The DBacks will now welcome the Rockies to Chase Field for the first of a four game series. A win will put back the DBacks back at .500 at home on the season.

Tonight’s probable starters, Austin Gomber and Dallas Keuchel, faced off last Saturday night as well. The Rockies won an 11-7 slugfest. Could tonight’s game result in another high-scoring affair despite the change in location?

Austin Gomber Epitomizes Rockies Pitching Woes

Rockies starter Gomber has struggled in his second year with the club. The left-hander is 4-7 with a 6.53 ERA on the year, largely due to all the traffic he has allowed on the base paths. Gomber is allowing 10.4 Hits/9, a 1.452 WHIP, and a .294 opposing batting average. He has also allowed 13 homers in just 73 innings of work.

While being a Rockies starting pitcher is one of the toughest jobs in the league due to the dimensions of their home ballpark, Gomber has not been much better on the road. He has a 6.64 ERA in seven eight home starts and 6.42 ERA in seven road starts. As a result, it may fall on the Rockies’ bats to end their losing streak.

The Rockies have teed off on left-handed pitching this season, hitting .295 with a .810 OPS. Tonight, they get a favorable matchup against Dallas Keuchel. Left fielder Kris Bryant is 4-for-6 with a home run in his career against Keuchel and he is starting to heat up of late. In his last nine games, he is hitting .321 and hit his first home run as a Rockies player in the Dodgers series.

Second baseman Brendan Rodgers homered off Keuchel in Saturday’s game. He is hitting .346 with four homers in 81 at-bats and a .998 OPS against left-handers this season, compared to .222 with four homers in 198 at-bats and a .627 OPS against right-handers this season.

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Diamondbacks Offense Needs to Stay Hot

Diamondbacks starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel began the year with the Chicago White Sox, where he really struggled. The veteran left-hander was 2-5 with a 7.88 ERA before the White Sox designated him for assignment. Things have not gotten much better for him in Arizona so far. Through his first two starts with the DBacks, Keuchel is 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA. He allowed six earned runs on six hits in five innings on Saturday.

This season, opposing batters are hitting .333 with a .939 OPS against Keuchel. In his first two starts with Arizona, he has allowed a hard hit percentage of 53.3% and line drive percentage of 43.3%, both of which are well above league average. If Keuchel gets shelled again, the Diamondbacks offense will have to pick up the slack. Fortunately for them, they are coming in hot.

Arizona is averaging 6.4 runs in its last nine games and the team is 5-4 in that span. The DBacks are not a team that hits for much average, but they are hitting a tick higher against lefties at .229 versus .217 against right-handers.

Second baseman Ketel Marte is 4-for-6 with two homers off Gomber, including a homer last Saturday. He is hitting .300 with a .812 OPS against LHP this season. First baseman Christian Walker also homered in Saturday’s game. In his last 15 games, he has five homers and a .998 OPS.

Rockies-Diamondbacks Pick

When a lineup gets a second look at a starter in such a short span, the second go-around tends to favor the batters. That is one of the reasons we see some  starters struggle their second and third times going through a lineup. With two shaky left-handers on the mound in Gomber and Keuchel, that could lead to another high-scoring game.

Gomber has 11 runs (nine earned) in 17.1 innings in his career against the Diamondbacks while Keuchel is not the pitcher he used to be in Houston. There could be 10 runs pretty early in this game, which would make the F5 over a solid play.

Should Gomber and Keuchel deliver bounce-back performances, neither team has a good bullpen, so runs should be on the board either way. The Dbacks are 24th in bullpen ERA while the Rockies are 28th. As a result, I prefer the full game total over. Another 18 run outburst is a possibility, but we will only need 10 to cash the over in this one.

Pick: Over 9.5 (-115)

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