Rockies vs Nationals Odds & Prediction: The Team Total to Bet
Pictured: CJ Abrams. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)
- The Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals meet in an early-afternoon MLB showdown on Wednesday.
- The Nationals enter as moderate favorites, but D.J. James sees betting value on their team total instead.
- Check out his top bet and preview for Rockies vs Nationals below.
Rockies vs Nationals Odds
The Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies face off in a battle at the bottom of the National League.
The Nationals can somewhat hit righties and have actually been above average in the past week. They will throw Jake Irvin against Peter Lambert of the Rockies. Lambert is much more of an opener than an actual starter, which could further hinder an already weak Colorado bullpen.
With that being the case, the Nationals have enough at the top of the batting order to exploit the Rockies' weak pitching and should hit their team total over.
Lambert hasn't thrown more than a few innings in each outing, but — even in a limited sample — he hasn't impressed. The right-hander ranks in the second percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the fourth percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. His xSLG is .489, which ranks in the ninth percentile. He did log a nice five inning outing against the struggling Miami Marlins, but otherwise hasn't thrown more than 3 1/3 innings in any one outing.
One of the main reasons for not betting the Rockies is that they rank last in hitting against righties in July (66 wRC+). They have a 6.2% walk rate and a 27.1% strikeout rate with a .670 OPS. Kris Bryant is again on the Injured List, so Colorado only has four active bats with a xwOBA over .300.
In relief, the Rockies have three active arms with an xFIP under 4.00: Justin Lawrence, Brent Suter and Matt Koch. That could hurt them in this game, especially if Lambert allows hard contact, as he usually does. This month, Colorado's bullpen is carrying a 4.45 xFIP.
Irvin isn't much better than Lambert. Irvin has a 4.87 ERA against a 5.14 xERA. That said, Irvin's Barrel Rate (9%) is lower. His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 43rd percentile and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 63rd percentile.
The Nats have a few young bats in Stone Garrett, CJ Abrams and Alex Call with xwOBA's over .320. Dominic Smith is also above the .310 mark, so that at least equates the Nationals to the Rockies, in terms of offense. However, the Nationals get a slight edge with a 107 wRC+ over the past week off of righties.
CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas have quietly been performing well this season.
CJ Abrams is on a 16/31 pace and slashing .343/.391/.562 since 6/19. QoC has improved this season as well.
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) July 25, 2023
The Nationals have the worst bullpen in baseball of late. They have one active arm below the 4.00 xFIP mark and have a collective 5.51 xFIP. With that being the case, it is hard to bet them on the moneyline.
Rockies vs Nationals Betting Pick
Backing the Nationals to go over their team total is the right call. Lambert shouldn't pitch too deep into this game and Colorado's bullpen isn't reliable. Take the Nationals team total to 5 (-110).