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Royals vs. Blue Jays MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Target the Total in Toronto (Sunday, July 17)

Royals vs. Blue Jays MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Target the Total in Toronto (Sunday, July 17) article feature image
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Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Bo Bichette (Blue Jays)

  • The Blue Jays host the Royals in the final game before the All-Star break.
  • The Blue Jays are heavy favorites, but our analyst is targeting the total in this matchup of American League teams.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Royals vs. Blue Jays Odds

Royals Odds +265
Blue Jays Odds -320
Over/Under 9 (-120/+100)
Time 12:05 p.m. ET
TV Peacock
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the fourth and final matchup of this series as the AL East‘s Toronto Blue Jays host the AL Central‘s Kansas City Royals. We have seen some high-scoring games in this series as two of the first three matchups have had at least nine total runs scored.

Will we get another high-scoring affair between these two clubs, or can the pitching step up?

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Kansas City Royals: Can Offense Keep Up Current Pace?

The Royals have been involved in many high-scoring games recently as there have been nine or more runs scored in nine of their past 15 games (60%). I expect this trend to continue as left-hander Kris Bubic is slated to take the mound for Kansas City.

Through 14 appearances this season, Bubic is 1-6 with a 6.63 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP. Bubic’s metrics are just as awful as he possesses a .394 xwOBA, .305 xBA and a .533 xSLG.

Following Bubic is a fade-worthy bullpen. Since June 1st, the Royals’ relief pitching ranks just 22nd in the league in ERA, 25th in BA, 18th in SLG and 25th in wOBA.

That being said, this pitching staff could get some good run support as the Royals are slated to go against right-hander Jose Berrios. Through 40 career plate appearances against Berrios, this current Royals roster boasts a .424 BA, .758 SLG and .526 wOBA.

Over their past 15 contests, the Royals are averaging 4.53 runs scored per game. While a big deal has been made about the amount of rostered players not making the trip from Kansas City due to Canada’s COVID restrictions, over half the Royals’ normal lineup will still be playing in this game.

Toronto Blue Jays: Will Berrios’ Struggles Continue?

Like the Royals, the Blue Jays have been involved in many high-scoring games over the past month as there have been nine or more runs scored in 18 of their past 27 games (67%). As mentioned above, right-hander Jose Berrios is slated to take the mound for Toronto.

Through 18 starts this season, Berrios is 7-4 with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Berrios’ metrics are just as poor as he possesses a .380 xwOBA, .296 xBA and a .557 xSLG.

In his 18 career starts against the Royals, Berrios is 6-4 with a 4.54 ERA. More recently, Berrios has allowed four or more earned runs in five of his past seven starts against Kansas City.

Following Berrios is a fade-worthy bullpen. Since June 1st, the Blue Jays’ relief pitching ranks just 24th in the league in ERA, 20th in BA, 22nd in SLG and 19th in wOBA.

However, this pitching staff could get a good amount of run support as the Blue Jays are slated to go against left-hander Kris Bubic. When facing left-handed pitchers at home, the Blue Jays rank 10th in the league in BA, eighth in SLG, ninth in OPS and ninth in wOBA since the beginning of June.

Over their past 20 contests, the Blue Jays are averaging 4.25 runs scored per game.

Royals-Blue Jays Pick

I am backing the trends in this contest and taking the over. Both of these starting pitchers are awful, and each bullpen is fade-worthy.

Kansas City’s lineup has had success against a struggling Berrios, despite missing some of their bigger names. Toronto can hit well against anyone, but they should fare especially well against Bubic at home.

I would rather lay more juice on the total at nine than take the over at 9.5 if the number moves.

Pick: Over 9 (-120) | Play up to (-130)

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