The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres on August 5, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Padres are favored by -124 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Padres vs Diamondbacks Pick: Under 9.5 (-120) | Play to Under 8.5 (-110)
My Padres vs Diamondbacks best bet is on the run total under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -155 | 8.5 -117o / -100u | -124 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +125 | 8.5 -117o / -100u | +110 |
- Padres vs Diamondbacks moneyline: Padres -124, Diamondbacks +110
- Padres vs Diamondbacks over/under: 8.5 (-117o / -100u)
- Padres vs Diamondbacks spread: Padres -1.5 (+125), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155)
Padres vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
| RHP Casey Mize (SDP) | Stat | LHP Mitch Bratt (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-6 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 3.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 2.70/3.08 | ERA / xERA | 5.23/4.91 |
| 2.58/3.78 | FIP / xFIP | 6.77/6.77 |
| 19.4% | K-BB% | -3.1% |
| 32.6% | GB% | 33.3% |
| .268 | BABIP | .288 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 108 | Location+ | 95 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Casey Mize will make his first start in a Padres uniform on Wednesday night, and while he won't be pitching at home, we'll still get a glimpse of how effective the former No. 1 overall pick can be in a friendly pitching environment.
Mize, a fly-baller with a 65% rate of contact in the air to surpass the league average by more than 10 points, will pitch at Chase Field, the 22nd-ranked park for home runs. His home park in San Diego should be just as friendly as the one he's called home, sitting mere spots away from Comerica Park in park factor for homers, and with a huge spike in launch angle, he's been able to generate plenty of pop-ups in the infield and lazy flies to the outfield.
The veteran righty has made big strides in 2026, bringing his strikeout rate up to a career-best 24.9%, along with a 5.6% walk rate, which would be his best in a full year. Best of all, his Expected Batting Average has cratered to .223, and the influx of fly balls hasn't been all that terrifying, with a .344 Expected Slugging sitting 60 points better than average.
Mize has actually pitched to the Diamondbacks once before this year, despite playing in the AL, striking out 9 over 6 innings of 1-run ball. He should be comfortable with the surroundings and is also coming off the best month of his season, where he pitched to a 2.91 ERA across 21 2/3 innings in July.
Of course, Arizona hardly strikes out and does own the fourth-best wRC+ over the last two weeks, but San Diego ranks fifth over the same time, and he hits for a higher average at .288.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
The Diamondbacks will throw Mitch Bratt once again on Wednesday, a pitcher we're all trying to figure out. He was dynamite in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League prior to his promotion, pitching to a 2.41 ERA across 52 1/3 innings, but so far it hasn't translated to the major-league level.
Bratt is a soft-tossing lefty who's aimed to get outs in the air with a 30% fly-ball rate. While his Pull Air% is a poor 24.3%, he's at least pitched to a somewhat friendly 37.1% hard-hit rate and a very solid 87.7 mph average exit velo. That's helped him to a good .237 xBA, one that's better than the league norm, and his .405 xSLG is just a hair under the league average as well. Walks have been a bit of a reason why his xERA is up at 4.90, and he's also now allowed four home runs in his last four starts.
He is at least coming off his best outing of the year — one in which he allowed just one run over five innings against the Guardians, but he walked four in that contest and has now walked nine over his last two outings. San Diego doesn't love to walk, doing so at an 8.6% clip over the last two weeks, and it's also suppressed in the power department with a .110 ISO in that span.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Pick, Betting Analysis
It's not like Mitch Bratt has been a long-standing pitching prospect with plenty of hype, but I do think he deserves more of a chance to prove himself than just five starts. After popping up with some good numbers last year in Texas' system and coming over in the Merrill Kelly deal, he took another step forward this year and has proven he can get outs even without much velocity on his fastball.
Unfortunately, the Padres rank ninth in OPS to fly-ball arms, but fortunately this is a great time to get them. San Diego has hit for little to no power in the last couple of weeks and now enters an arduous ballpark for power.
On the flip side, Arizona has also been at its best against fly-ball pitchers, but while it doesn't strike out much, it shouldn't really preclude an average strikeout arm in Mize from doing his thing. The righty has been able to keep the ball in the yard all year while pitching in an average park for homers, and now he'll head to the West Coast, which is ripe with pitcher's parks. I expect another solid showing in his second go-around against the Diamondbacks, and a low-scoring affair throughout.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-120) | Play to Under 8.5 (-110)
