The Cleveland Guardians host the San Diego Padres on August 14, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Guardians prediction below.
Padres vs Guardians Prediction
- Padres vs Guardians Pick: Guardians (55c, Kalshi)
Padres vs Guardians Kalshi MLB Odds
Padres vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Michael King (RHP, SDP) | Stat | Gavin Williams (RHP, CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-8 | W-L | 11-6 |
| 2.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 3.37 / 4.40 | ERA / xERA | 3.55 / 3.74 |
| 4.16 / 4.36 | FIP / xFIP | 3.41 / 2.80 |
| 11.6% | K-BB% | 25.1% |
| 43.9% | GB% | 44.9% |
| .250 | BABIP | .270 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 101 | Location+ | 105 |
Padres vs Guardians MLB Preview
I was scrolling through Zerillo’s BARTOLO projections (as one does) when I saw that he projects some value on the Guardians in this matchup.
I’m ready to roll with Cleveland.
Gavin Williams is one of my new favorite pitchers. I think he’s a dark-horse Cy Young candidate next season. He’s found some extra juice on his fastball (now 97.4 MPH on average) and has started throwing his high-whiff sweeper more often (29% usage, 43% whiff). He’s found a good five-pitch mix, and it’s really boosted his underlying indicators (2.80 xFIP, 25.1% K-BB).
Meanwhile, Michael King is heading in the opposite direction, as he’s on pace to post a career-low K-BB rate (11.6%) alongside career-high expected earned run indicators (4.40 xERA, 4.36 xFIP, 4.47 botERA).
These are two top-10 bullpens, although the Padres will likely be without Bradgley Rodriguez after tossing 17 pitches last night — that could help the Guardians in the later innings.
While the Padres have the better lineup, the Guardians will have the pitching and defensive advantages, alongside home-field advantage.
Pick: Guardians (55c, Kalshi)
