The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on on June 17, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
- Padres vs Dodgers pick: Over 10 (Play to 11)
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 10 -105 / -115 | +180 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 10 -105 / -115 | -220 |
Padres vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Randy Vasquez (SD) | Stat | Undecided (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | — |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | — |
| 3.57/5.91 | ERA /xERA | — |
| 5.35/5.60 | FIP / xFIP | — |
| 1.40 | WHIP | — |
| 2% | K-BB% | — |
| 40.7% | GB% | — |
| 96 | Stuff+ | — |
| 98 | Location+ | — |
Kenny Ducey’s Padres vs Dodgers Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Bad Spot for Vasquez
The Padres will once again hand the ball to a man who's remained healthy enough to hold onto a job in their starting rotation — and who's wiggled his way out of trouble time and time again — in Randy Vasquez.
The righty isn't doing anything special out there — holding a weak 13.9% strikeout rate next to a weaker 11.7% walk rate — but he's just six days removed from stifling the Dodgers across 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball.
He allowed just two hits in that one, and has now allowed four total hits across his last two starts. While he's walked five, just one of those came against L.A.
Vasquez hasn't exactly shown any sort of improvement this season, with a .282 Expected Batting Average in the month of June. That followed up on a .273 xBA in both April and May, and his Expected Slugging has also leapt up from a poor .539 last month to a catastrophic .572 in June.
Pitching away from his friendly home park in San Diego will be trouble for Vasquez, who pitches to plenty of well-struck balls, often in the air.
His 3.94 ERA on the road could easily be higher on account of his rough expected numbers. He's running a 3.25 ERA at home at any rate, and his WHIP is 14 points lower in those outings, as well.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Pitching Problems for L.A.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, are trying to dance around the fact that they have just three healthy starting pitchers.
Ben Casparius has been used in the role, but he came on after Shohei Ohtani threw the first inning on Monday, meaning this team will have to figure out a plan for the next two nights.
It would seem that Justin Wrobleski is in for an extended look here, given he's rested for three days, though L.A. could also turn to Matt Sauer for a bulk appearance, given he's now had a full week off.
With that said, he allowed nine runs on 13 hits in his last outing — which came against the Padres — so they'll likely try to hide him as best they can.
Regardless of who throws here — even if it's both men — this isn't going to be a great matchup. Wrobleski has looked very hittable through two abbreviated big-league stints, struggling to miss bats and allowing a .269 xBA this season on a whole host of ground balls.
He's allowed far more contact on the ground this year, but that's come along with a huge spike in exit velocity.
With the Dodgers' infield continuing to struggle defensively, I can't see a way they make it through this one without surrendering plenty of runs to San Diego.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
San Diego ranks just 19th in wRC+ over the last two weeks, failing to supply any sort of power, but it's still hit just .248 with a solid 9% walk rate.
This team is going to get the ball into play, and with neither bulk reliever for L.A. holding even middling numbers on contact, I can't see how this offense doesn't hit.
It's not like the Padres have been ice cold at the dish either, scoring 18 runs across their first two games against the Dodgers at home last week. They've now scored 18 in their last three games against Arizona and L.A.
On top of that, we've covered how this team is still putting runners on base, and with both bulk relievers looking overmatched — and L.A. using four of its five best relievers to complete the win on Monday — this has all the makings of a punt game for Dave Roberts.
On the other end, however, Vasquez is facing a Dodgers offense that's been down on its luck lately but has still produced a 105 wRC+ in the last 14 days (ranking just outside the top 10).
They're crucially maintaining a solid walk rate of 9.6%, and with Vasquez struggling to find the zone and pitching against a team that's continued to hit — albeit a bit less for power — runners should be moving around the bases all night.
I'd honestly take this total all the way up to 11 runs. We might see a position player on the mound for the Dodgers at some point.
Pick: Over 10 (Play to 11)
Moneyline
I don't have any play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I don't have any play on the run line, either.
Over/Under
I'm taking the over up to 11.
