The Los Angeles Dodgers (45-29) host the San Diego Padres (39-33) on Wednesday, June 18, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Dodgers enter Wednesday on a four-game winning streak and have won their last three games against the Padres. These NL West rivals combined for 14 runs last night — should we expect the same on Wednesday?
Find my Padres vs Dodgers predictions and Wednesday MLB pick on the over/under below.
Padres vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks, Best Bet
- Padres vs Dodgers pick: Over 9.5 (-104) | Play to Over 10 (-118)
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet is Over 9.5 (-104). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Dodgers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| San Diego Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | +170 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -205 |
Padres vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Stephen Kolek (SD) | Stat | RHP Emmet Sheehan (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 0-0 (Season debut) |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | – |
| 3.50/3.80 | ERA /xERA | – |
| 4.43/4.34 | FIP / xFIP | – |
| 1.32 | WHIP | – |
| 8.1% | K-BB% | – |
| 53.9% | GB% | – |
| 97 | Stuff+ | – |
| 98 | Location+ | – |
Padres vs Dodgers Preview, Predictions
Padres Betting Preview
It's always a dangerous game to throw a ground-ball pitcher against the Dodgers, and Wednesday should be no different.
L.A. sits atop the league with an .840 OPS in the split, and while it has done nearly as much damage against fly-ballers, this is still as extreme a split as we've seen over the past three or so years.
The Dodgers beat out the next-best team by over 60 percentage points, and now they'll face a right-hander in Stephen Kolek with an extreme 53.9% ground-ball rate — he's just outside the top 10% of all pitchers in that category, according to Statcast.
Kolek's game has been incredibly one-dimensional, with his strikeout rate sitting at a low 17.9%, and for a guy who's tailored his game around contact, a 9.1% walk rate is certainly higher than you'd like to see.
The right-hander has struggled with walks all year, but he's been decidedly worse in his past three outings with eight walks and 10 strikeouts over just 15 2/3 innings this month.
The converted reliever carries an acceptable .250 Expected Batting Average with him into this outing, but San Diego — even with some improvements in June — still ranks in the bottom five of Outs Above Average in the infield.
That — and a very high 48.9% hard-hit rate — should combine with the Dodgers' excellence against launch angle-avoiders to make for a very tricky outing.
Dodgers Betting Preview
The Dodgers' bullpen is on its last legs. They were forced to use Matt Sauer in long relief last night with no starter to take the ball, and while he's now unavailable, you'd also figure Jack Dreyer and Lou Trivino will take the night off after throwing 33 and 34 pitches on Tuesday, respectively.
On top of that, closer Tanner Scott has now worked three straight games, Michael Kopech has worked three of the past four and Anthony Banda is another candidate for a night off with 21 pitches in each of the past two games. That leaves just Justin Wrobleski in long relief and the late innings will likely be handled by Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia.
I say all of that because that puts the pressure on Emmet Sheehan to deliver a strong, and lengthy, performance in his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery a year ago.
He lit it up down in the complex league for two innings as he began his rehab assignment, but experienced some turbulence in the upper minors with a 4.82 ERA over 9 1/3 innings in Triple-A.
The underlying numbers look great for Sheehan and he did strike out a stunning 16 batters in those Triple-A innings to just one walk, but he also surrendered two home runs and 10 hits.
Sheehan flashed some potential in his first taste of big-league action two seasons ago, and the most notable part was his strong 25.8% strikeout rate. That's where things get tricky, however, facing a Padres team that has arguably been the best in baseball this season in limiting punchouts.
His issues with walks didn't creep in while he rehabbed, either, but moving up a level, I wouldn't be surprised if he's exposed a bit in that area. If he struggles to hold a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio, his tough numbers on contact could make this a tough outing.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
While the Dodgers hold a favorable split against ground-ballers, the Padres hold a similar edge against fly-ballers with a much stronger OPS.
Yes, they may not be hitting for much power at the moment, but they remain very disciplined at the plate and should have a good chance of making Sheehan uncomfortable with a barrage of well-struck fly balls and line drives and a few more walks than the youngster may be used to coming from a brief Triple-A stint.
This team has been hitting .249 in the past two weeks with a walk in 9% of plate appearances, and there should be little in their way of generating baserunners against a heavily strikeout-reliant arm.
On the other end, we know the drill by now with the Dodgers against a ground-ball pitcher. They will hit, and Kolek has certainly been knocked around a bunch despite relatively quiet expected numbers.
The Padres' infield defense hasn't been doing him many favors, and he's also hampering his progress with all the walks this month. We know the Dodgers to be a very patient team at the dish, and the combination of all these factors doesn't have me any more excited for Kolek.
When you factor in that this Dodgers bullpen is absolutely gassed, and may have to turn to their worst arm in Wrobleski, I think their prospects of holding San Diego at bay become even murkier. San Diego also had to burn five of its top six relievers on Tuesday, so there should be ample opportunities for both offenses all night long.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-104)
Moneyline
I will not be betting on either side of the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also staying away from run line.
Over/Under
As mentioned above, I see value in over tonight.
Padres vs Dodgers Betting Trends
Padres Trends
- Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Padres are 19-20 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Padres' last 5 games
Dodgers Trends
- Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Dodgers' 39 last games at home
Padres vs Dodgers Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif. |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 18 |
| Time: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | MLB Network, SportsNet LA, Padres TV |
