The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners on May 23, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SCHN.
The Astros dropped the hammer on the Mariners in the series opener — should we expect the same on Friday night with the hittable Emerson Hancock on the hill for Seattle?
Find my Mariners vs Astros prediction for Friday below.
My Mariners vs Astros Prediction
- Mariners vs Astros pick: Astros Moneyline (-125) | Play to -135
My Mariners vs Astros best bet is on the Astros moneyline (-125). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Astros Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | +105 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | -125 |
Mariners vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Emerson Hancock (SEA) | Stat | RHP Ryan Gusto (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 3-2 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 6.21/6.07 | ERA /xERA | 4.65/4.51 |
| 5.39/4.22 | FIP / xFIP | 4.05/4.42 |
| 1.68 | WHIP | 1.52 |
| 8.7% | K-BB% | 13.5% |
| 46% | GB% | 35.8% |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 100 | Location+ | 95 |
Kenny Ducey’s Mariners vs Astros Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Starter in Trouble and Bats Cooling Off
If you thought every arm the Seattle Mariners' staff touches turns to gold, Emerson Hancock is living proof that even the best organizations can fail sometimes.
He's still 25, and there's still hope he can tap into his potential, but so far, we're seeing a pitcher severely overmatched at this level.
The right-hander enters play on Friday with a 6.07 Expected ERA and .321 Expected Batting Average, both of which rank in the bottom 6% of all pitchers, and those figures indicate little hope to be found here.
Hancock is primarily a ground-ball pitcher but works in front of an infield that ranks fourth-worst in baseball in Outs Above Average. On top of that, he has yielded a concerning 9.7% barrel rate and .530 Expected Slugging, which are well above the league average and also quite high relative to most other ground-ball pitchers.
Hancock has also struggled to find strikeouts for a third straight year, which wouldn't be an issue if he was getting consistent outs on the ground.
That's not the case, however, and to make matters worse, he's not exactly a stalwart with his control, working to a career-worst 8% walk rate this season.
Seattle's red-hot offense has also cooled in the last two weeks, sitting 26th in wRC+. It would appear the same Mariners offense we grew to hate over the last few years has returned, as they've struck out in a whopping 27.4% of plate appearances over that span and are hitting .207.
Their Isolated Power has also fallen off a bit to .143, making this a brutal profile to trust.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: With Less Gusto Than Usual
Houston just keeps on chugging despite several questions regarding its roster — and its depth — entering the season.
Yordan Alvarez continues to sit on the injured list, yet this team ranks fifth in wRC+ in the last 14 days with a spicy .268 average and solid plate discipline numbers. The Astros may not be scaring many away with their .157 ISO, but they're consistently putting runners on base and moving them with ease.
It's good that this team has hit because Ryan Gusto's days in the rotation appear to be numbered — even with two more starters hitting the shelf with injuries. Houston's brought up some arms from Triple-A to great success in spot starts, and Gusto has held down a place in this rotation in spite of a 4.65 ERA in 31 innings.
The sample is small, sure, but the last time we saw Gusto take the ball as a starter he surrendered seven runs over 2 1/3 innings to the Kansas City Royals — perhaps one of the worst offenses around. He wasn't a great pitcher last year in the minors, with a 3.70 ERA in Triple-A; the year before, he recorded a 4.50 ERA across all levels.
Gusto may not work all that deep here, having come out of the bullpen six days ago to pitch a scoreless inning, and that would seem to be a good thing for the Astros.
He has a rough .262 xBA and an even rougher .453 xSLG, serving up a large complement of hard-hit fly balls. He also owns a suspect 9.2% walk rate, and while his strikeout rate is not low, it's also not terribly high at 22.7%. That's simply not good enough to make up for what we're seeing elsewhere.
Mariners vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mariners have struggled to hit for power lately, and they've especially struggled to hit fly-ball pitchers with a .711 OPS this season, which ranks 20th in the league — and represents a 12-spot difference from where they stand against ground-ballers.
Gusto may be a flawed pitcher, but this isn't a superb matchup for a Seattle team that has been whiffing at everything and taking fewer walks next to all the strikeouts.
The right-hander at least stands a better chance than his counterpart Hancock, who's been one of the worst active starting pitchers in baseball.
I don't think Hancock stands a chance here, and when you consider the Astros' ownership over the Mariners through the years –and their advantage playing at home– there's no question who I'm taking.
Pick: Astros ML (-125, BetMGM)
Moneyline
We're tracking some sharp money hitting the Astros, who have taken on 61% of the bets and 56% of the money.
Run Line (Spread)
Seattle is now 13-6 to the run line as underdogs, and while it has failed to cover in its last three, it's been favored each time. Houston is just 15-18 to the run line as favorites.
Over/Under
The Under is also a target of the sharps here despite taking on just 22% of the tickets and 15% of the handle. The Over has hit in 14 of 25 games Seattle has played on the road.
Mariners vs Astros Betting Trends
