The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners on May 11, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SCHN.
The Mariners are favored by -150 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +125 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mariners vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mariners vs Astros Prediction
- Mariners vs Astros Pick: Astros ML (+125 | Play to +100)
My Mariners vs Astros best bet is on Houston to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Astros Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8 -115o / -105u | -150 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8 -115o / -105u | +125 |
- Mariners vs Astros moneyline: Mariners -150, Astros +125
- Mariners vs Astros over/under: -8 (-115o / -105u)
- Mariners vs Astros spread: Mariners -1.5 (+115), Astros +1.5 (-140)
Mariners vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| RHP George Kirby (SEA) | Stat | RHP Peter Lambert (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 2.94 / 2.77 | ERA / xERA | 2.42 / 3.32 |
| 3.42 / 3.72 | FIP / xFIP | 2.80 / 4.06 |
| 13.2 | K-BB% | 12.9 |
| 57.6 | GB% | 44.6 |
| .279 | BABIP | .263 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 113 | Location+ | 96 |
Mariners vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
Mariners vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
The Mariners' struggles continue. They won just four of their last 10 games and sit in third place with a 19-22 record. Perhaps a little Game 7 ALCS hangover for Seattle?
Tonight's starter, George Kirby, has been the model of consistency for the Mariners. He surrendered two or fewer runs in six of his eight starts in 2026, posting a 2.94 ERA with a 2.78 xERA and 3.44 FIP in 52 innings.
Kirby has changed his approach a bit this year. He enters this outing with a career high 57% groundball rate, up from his previous career high 44%. His sinker is his primary ground ball pitch, which he throws to right-handed hitters 33% of the time. Against lefties, he throws it just 7% of the time, while increasing his curveball usage to 18% and changeup usage to 13%.
The biggest difference between 2025 and 2026 for Kirby is a decrease in his HR/9 from 1.09 to 0.78. That, paired with Kirby's 2.09 BB/9, makes him a top-tier starter.
Seattle is getting close to nothing from Cal Raleigh, but it ranks 12th in MLB with a 100 wRC+ since April 26th. In that stretch, Raleigh has a -14 wRC+ with a .054 batting average.
Despite Raleigh struggling, Julio Rodriguez has made up for it with a 177 wRC+ and four homers in 12 games. Josh Naylor has also been a sharp free agent signing, hitting .333 with a 12% strikeout rate in his last 12.
Swing and miss remains a constant for this Mariners lineup. They rank 26th in MLB with a 24% strikeout rate this season — and not putting the ball in play is a rally killer.
I'm a tad worried about Mariners stud closer Andres Munoz. Munoz has a 6.00 ERA with a 4.99 xERA and a 3.80 FIP. It can't stay this bad, but his 1.80 HR/9 has crushed his ERA.
The Mariners had one save situation since Munoz's last outing last Tuesday — and Jose Ferrer shut the door. We'll see if Munoz gets in the mix here.
Meanwhile, the Astros had about as bad a 41-game start as anybody could've guessed, sitting at 16-25. However, they sit just 5.5 games behind the first-place Athletics in the weak AL West.
Among the few bright spots is Peter Lambert, whom Houston brought back stateside after a brief stint in the NPB. In four outings with the Astros, Lambert has a 2.42 ERA with a 3.33 xERA and a 2.82 FIP. Opponents have a .205 xBA against Lambert and boast a strong 5.3% barrel rate.
The only issue for Lambert is his 4.43 BB/9. Walks have always been an issue for him, even in the NPB. However, he strikes out 9.27 batters per nine, which should keep this swing-and-miss-heavy Mariners team off-balance.
Action PRO projects Lambert for 5.3 strikeouts tonight.
The Astros offense has been one of the best in MLB this year. They have a strong 116 wRC+, good for 5th in MLB. Hitting for power is a huge strength, as their 52 homers are fourth best in the league.
Yordan Alvarez is a huge reason for Houston's hot hitting. He has a 195 wRC+ with 13 homers and cut his strikeout rate to 13%. But don't sleep on Christian Walker, who quietly has a 147 wRC+ and nine homers after a brutal first season in H-Town.
My main concern about the Astros is their bullpen. Josh Hader is still on the injured list, and Bryan Abreu has a 9.20 ERA.
Houston has a 6.20 bullpen ERA, the lowest in MLB, and it's blown several winnable games. That's part of the calculus in betting on the Astros in 2026: You have to be ready for potential heartbreak with this shaky pen.
That's a risk I'm willing to take. Kirby is a trustworthy pitcher, but so is Lambert. From a pricing standpoint, the Astros are plus-money home underdogs against an underachieving Mariners club.
Give me the better offense at home with plus money odds to win the series opener.
Pick: Astros ML (+125, BetMGM | Play to +100)
