The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners on May 14, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SCHN.
The Mariners are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mariners vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mariners vs Astros Prediction
- Mariners vs Astros Pick: Astros F5 ML (-110 or Better)
My Mariners vs Astros best bet is on Houston's first-half moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Astros Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 9 -110o / -110u | -126 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 9 -110o / -110u | +108 |
- Mariners vs Astros moneyline: Mariners -126, Astros +108
- Mariners vs Astros over/under: 9 (-110 / -110)
- Mariners vs Astros spread: Mariners -1.5 (+132), Astros +1.5 (-160)
Mariners vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| Luis Castillo (RHP, SEA) | Stat | Mike Burrows (RHP, HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | W-L | 2-4 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 6.57 / 5.76 | ERA / xERA | 5.04 / 3.79 |
| 4.55 / 4.35 | FIP / xFIP | 4.64 / 4.07 |
| 13.5% | K-BB% | 14.4% |
| 34.1% | GB% | 37.8% |
| .364 | BABIP | .344 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 112 | Location+ | 99 |
Mariners vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
I project the Astros as -121 ML favorites in this matchup, and therefore believe the wrong team is favored.
I just don’t think Luis Castillo is very good. He typically takes a long time to ramp up into full form, but he’s seemingly been pitching worse as the season has progressed.
He posted a 103 Stuff+ rating and 115 Pitching+ rating over his first four starts, but that’s dropped to 92 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ over the past four starts. He posted a season-low average fastball velocity mark in his most recent start (94.1 MPH). He’s allowed 15 earned runs over his past 15 innings.
Seattle needs to have a pitching advantage in this series because Houston boasts one of the league’s most dangerous lineups, and my power ratings don’t look favorably upon the Mariners’ defense (-0.35 DEF rating, 30th).
Of course, the Mariners will have a significant bullpen advantage, as they boast one of the league’s better relief staffs, while the Astros have negative pitching.
Mariners vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
Still, I’m willing to take a shot with Houston on Thursday because I want to fade Castillo.
I’m no Mike Burrows fan, but he’s a comparable pitcher to Castillo by the underlying metrics. Burrows has a 3.79 xERA, 4.07 xFIP, and 4.44 botERA, while Castillo has a 5.76 xERA, 4.35 xFIP, and 3.86 botERA. Both pitchers are also running similar strikeout minus walk rates and ground-ball rates.
I feel that taking the Astros in the first half might be the better move, just because of Houston’s horrific bullpen situation.
Pick: Houston F5 ML (-110 or Better)
