The Houston Astros host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 3, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Astros are -108 on the moneyline. The Rays are -108 on the moneyline. The total is set at 8.5.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Astros Prediction
- Rays vs Astros Pick: Astros ML (-120 or Better)
My Rays vs Astros best bet is on Houston. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Astros Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -108 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -108 |
- Rays vs Astros moneyline: Rays -108, Astros -108
- Rays vs Astros over/under: 8.5 (-104o / -118u)
- Rays vs Astros spread: Rays -1.5 (+152), Astros +1.5 (-184)
Rays vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| Nick Martinez (RHP, TBR) | Stat | Spencer Arrighetti (RHP, HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | W-L | 7-4 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 2.66 / 4.57 | ERA / xERA | 4.00 / 4.82 |
| 3.73 / 4.55 | FIP / xFIP | 4.65 / 4.64 |
| 10.6% | K-BB% | 12.2% |
| 33.6% | GB% | 38.5% |
| .276 | BABIP | .261 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 105 | Location+ | 93 |
Rays vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
Our own Sean Zerillo projects some value on the Astros in this matchup.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, check out BARTOLO, Zerillo's new PRO baseball betting tool that gives you access to all the input data Zerillo uses to project games every day.
Rays vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
From my perspective, there are two main parts to this handicap.
The first is that Nick Martinez isn't nearly as good as his 2.66 ERA suggests. He's been extremely lucky from a stranded-runner perspective (84).3%), and that's sure to come around eventually.
All the underlying earned run indicators point toward Martinez being on the same level as his counterpart today, Spencer Arrighetti.
The second big part of this handicap is that Houston's lineup still projects out as one of the best in the league, while the Rays lineup really tails off after its top three hitters.
That's enough to project the Astros better than -130 on the moneyline.
Pick: Astros ML (-120 or Better)
