The New York Mets host the Seattle Mariners on August 17, 2025. First pitch from BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The eighth installment of MLB's Little League Classic will take place Sunday evening and will feature a quality pitching matchup with George Kirby (3.71 ERA, 8-5) set to face off against Clay Holmes (3.71 ERA, 9-6). The historic stadium is 411 feet to center field, 323 feet to left, and 331 feet to right. The previous seven Little League Classics have averaged 7.14 total runs.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mariners vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mariners vs Mets Prediction
- Mariners vs Mets picks: Mariners Moneyline -130 (Bet365, Play to -135)
My Mariners vs Mets best bet is Mariners Moneyline -130. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Mets Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +133 | 8.5 -115o / -106u | -131 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -163 | 8.5 -115o / -106u | +107 |
Mariners vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP George Kirby (SEA) | Stat | RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | W-L | 9-6 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 3.71 / 3.40 | ERA /xERA | 3.71 / 4.40 |
| 3.22 / 3.21 | FIP / xFIP | 4.20 / 4.11 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 20.5% | K-BB% | 9.1% |
| 46.5% | GB% | 56.5% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 112 | Location+ | 99 |
Nick Martin’s Mariners vs Mets Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
Kirby took some time to get into top form after a late start to the season due to injury but has pitched at an elite level of late and will be a key reason why the Mariners may prove to be a tough out come the Postseason. Kirby has pitched to an ERA of 2.32 in five outings since the All-Star break and holds an xFIP of 2.96 in those outings. He also holds a strikeout minus walk-rate of 21.7% in those five starts and a Pitching+ rating of 111.
Seattle's relief staff has remained in strong form recently, pitching to an ERA of 3.43 and an xFIP of 3.77 over the last 30 days. The majority of its top bullpen arms are well-rested entering this matchup and should be available in relief.
The Mariners hold the seventh-best wRC+ in MLB versus right-handed pitching this season, and as a team have displayed much better plate discipline under new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer compared to 2024. Victor Robles remains the only notable position player on the IL.
New York Mets Betting Preview
With a record of 2-8 over the last 10 games, the Mets are now five games back of the Philadelphia Phillies in the race for the NL East title and hold just a 1.5-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds for the final Wildcard spot.
Similar to his team as a whole, Holmes level of play has dropped off since his strong start to the campaign. Prior to the All-Star break, Holmes pitched to an ERA of 3.31 in 103 and 1/3 innings of work, but has struggled to an ERA of 5.56 in 22 and 2/3 innings since the break.
In his five starts following the All-Star break, Holmes's underlying numbers also aren't overly strong. He holds an xFIP of 4.18, allowed an xBA of .288, and owns a strikeout minus walk-rate of 6.5%. He does still hold an elite ground ball rate of 61.8%, but also allowed a line-drive rate of 22.5%.
The Mets bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 3.94 and an xFIP of 4.12 over the last 30 days.
The Mets hold the fifth best wRC+ versus right-handed pitching over the entirety of the season and have hit to a wRC+ of 115 versus righties since July 1st. Josi Siri, Jesse Winker, and Nick Madrigal remain on the IL, but the Mets' top batters are all expected to be in the lineup for this exciting matchup.
Mariners vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
Kirby has trended into elite form recently, which is no surprise given the level of play he has consistently offered throughout the beginning of what should be an excellent career. The Mets lineup presents a tough challenge and has remained hard on righties of late despite the team's ugly recent results, but the Mariners' new-look lineup projects to be similarly effective and gets a softer matchup versus Holmes.
Laying -130 to back a red-hot Kirby leading the Mariners to a win over Holmes appears to be quite reasonable, and I would bet it down to -135.
Pick: Mariners -130 (Bet365, Play to -135)
Moneyline
As outlined, betting the Mariners to win the game at -130 is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Mariners to cover the run line at +135 also looks to present value.
Over/Under
A total of 8.5 looks accurate given the ballpark.
