The Philadelphia Phillies host the St. Louis Cardinals for a doubleheader on Wednesday, May 14, 2025. First pitch for Game 1 from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
After a rain-canceled game on Tuesday, the Phillies and Cardinals will have a double dip on Wednesday. The Phillies will give the ball to fire-balling southpaw Jesus Luzardo, while the Cardinals have veteran Erick Fedde on the hill.
Find my Cardinals vs Phillies prediction below, as well as Game 1 probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Cardinals vs Phillies Prediction
- Cardinals vs Phillies picks: Phillies -1.5 (play to +100)
My Cardinals vs Phillies best bet is Phillies -1.5 (play to +100). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Phillies Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +136 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +108 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -162 |
Cardinals vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | Stat | RHP Erick Fedde (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 2.11 / 3.29 | ERA /xERA | 3.86 / 4.92 |
| 2.33 / 3.25 | FIP / xFIP | 4.12 / 5.01 |
| 1.21 | WHIP | 1.31 |
| 19.8% | K-BB% | 4.1% |
| 43.3% | GB% | 41.5% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 112 | Location+ | 106 |
Sean Paul’s Cardinals vs Phillies Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
The Cardinals hope Erick Fedde can use his complete game shutout in his last outing as a springboard for future success.
Fedde has a 3.86 ERA with a 4.95 xERA, but he’s striking out just 5.59 batters per nine while walking over 4.02. Coincidentally, Fedde punched out a season-best eight Nationals hitters and walked none in his last start.
The batted ball data isn’t friendly towards Fedde, either. He ranks in the 20th percentile in average exit velocity. And if Fedde isn’t throwing consistent strikes, nor striking hitters out and getting hit hard, it’s tough to see his season going well.
In this matchup, I have some worries about the Cardinals' offense. They have the 11th-best offense against left-handed pitching, but I don't fully buy it.
It's good to see Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan hold their own against southpaws, but Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, and Victor Scott II are liabilities. While Burleson is a strict platoon bat, the Cardinals have no choice but to play Winn and Scott, despite posting poor wRC+'s with strikeout rates north of 30%.
One of the Cardinals' top weapons versus lefties is Luken Baker. The problem is that Baker can't hit right-handers, so the Cardinals sent him down five days ago. So, the Cardinals' offense is even worse versus lefties.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Jesus Luzardo was a marvelous addition for the Phillies. He fell under the radar due to a truncated rough 12 starts with the Marlins in 2024. After posting a lousy 5.00 ERA last year, Luzardo has a dazzling 2.11 ERA with a 2.32 FIP and a 3.26 xERA.
He's improved in three key areas. He's up to a 9.77 K/9 this year while boasting a career-low 2.49 BB/9 and an elite, but unsustainable, 0.38 HR/9.
Unless Luzardo is prime Clayton Kershaw, he'll eventually allow a few homers. But it seems like Luzardo has finally found the form that once made him an elite pitching prospect.
The Phillies' offense has guided their recent 6-4 stretch over their last 10 games. They have a 114 wRC+ since May 1, which ranks eighth in MLB.
Philadelphia has done an exceptional job at limiting strikeouts, punching out just 20% of the time (11th in MLB) and has 15 homers in May with a .164 isolated power.
When Kyle Schwarber is going good, the Phillies are going good.
The slugging leadoff hitter has five homers in May with a 200 wRC+. He's the perfect tone setter for the Phillies, as he gets on base at a .408 clip and opens RBI chances for Trea Turner and Bryce Harper.
The Phillies are the perfect team to attack Fedde's weaknesses. I touched on his lack of strikeouts, which is a problem for him here. He's a fly-ball first pitcher, as 42% of his outs come via the fly ball.
That's a recipe for disaster against a Phillies team that hits the long ball at an elite clip.
Cardinals vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
All the key factors point against the scalding-hot Cardinals. They strike out 23% of the time against southpaws and have to face one of the best lefties in the game. Their offense will struggle to score, and I'm not letting Fedde's one-off awesome start shield my vision of reality.
When teams get to Fedde, they really get to Fedde.
He allowed 6+ runs in two of his eight starts and three runs in another start. I think we'll slowly see more outings of the 3+ earned run variety from Fedde, and it begins with a shaky outing in Philly.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (play to +100)
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
My bet for this game is the Phillies to cover the run line (-1.5).
Over/Under
I have no bet on the game total.
Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Trends
