The San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 2, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSMW.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cardinals vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cardinals vs Padres Prediction
- Cardinals vs Padres picks: Padres F5 ML
My Cardinals vs Padres best bet is Padres First Five Moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Padres Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +120 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -145 |
Cardinals vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael McGreevy (STL) | Stat | RHP Randy Vasquez (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 4.94 / 4.42 | ERA /xERA | 3.65 / 5.93 |
| 3.28 / 4.30 | FIP / xFIP | 5.32 / 5.98 |
| 1.21 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 10.1% | K-BB% | 0.9% |
| 36.9% | GB% | 37.9% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 111 | Location+ | 100 |
Kenny Ducey’s Cardinals vs Padres Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview: McGreevy Doesn't Want to Leave
Michael McGreevy has been racking up frequent flier miles, shuttling between Triple-A and the big leagues this year, but while he's been up at this level, he's been a pretty reliable starter for St. Louis.
Of course, his last outing against the Padres was one to forget — where he allowed seven earned runs on nine hits over 4 2/3 innings — and that's the same team he'll draw here on Saturday. He did carry a neat 3.49 ERA into that start, but judging by some of the rookie's surrounding numbers, that may have simply been regression setting in.
The right-hander is going to pitch to plenty of contact in the air with his low 38.1% ground-ball rate, and you like to see that in a park like the one he calls home in St. Louis. It didn't help him find success last go around, however, so another friendly park in San Diego may not do him much better.
Around that, he's missing very few bats and owns a .302 Expected Batting Average on account of a 43.4% hard-hit rate, which is well above the league median. He's not exactly a terrible pitcher, and his low walk rate does help him avoid some degree of trouble, but he's serving up very hittable offerings and must find a way to induce some weaker pop-ups.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Carried by Bats, Panic at the Mound
The Padres won't blink at the thought of a low walk rate, given they swing at just about everything. These contact kings have feasted on pitchers like McGreevy, who find the strike zone with consistency, and in the last two weeks, they're hitting .276 with a very low 17.7% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate.
This isn't always the case for a team that swings at plenty of pitches, but for the Padres, it holds true. They'll be able to aim at an outfield defense which has been good, but has not been as good as the Cardinals' infield, so the matchup should remain just as friendly as the last time these two met.
That much is good news; the bad news is that Randy Vasquez is pitching again. He's running a terrible .281 xBA behind one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball at a shocking 11.6% and a walk rate of 10.7%. He's done nothing well but pitch to fly balls, which has worked out in his favor inside a pitcher's park, and at home he's running a 3.21 ERA as opposed to a 4.11 on the road.
The walks have been brutal, and Vasquez has piled up baserunners with a 1.37 WHIP, but he's been able to navigate out of trouble time and time again this year. Best of all, he's allowed just one homer in the last five starts.
He may not offer much in terms of taking the bat out of his opponents' hands or commanding the zone, but he can at least steady the ship when needed.
Cardinals vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Padres are running a hot lineup right now, and St. Louis is not. It sits fourth-to-last in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a poor .125 Isolated Power and even worse, .222 average. The Cardinals simply don't have a wealth of talent, and a lot of their first-half success stories have fallen by the wayside.
They managed just one hit and one walk-off Vasquez last time out, and now we'll see this same matchup take place in a very similar environment where fly balls go to die. I do think this game is bound to be a carbon copy, not just because of McGreevy's underlying struggles, but due to the persistent results that Vasquez is conjuring up.
We don't have to worry about St. Louis walking much, given it's one of the least patient teams in baseball, and we similarly don't have to worry about much power with the bats going missing in the last 14 days. It may not feel good, but you've got to go with Vasquez here.
Pick: Padres First Five (-128) | Play to -135
Moneyline
I plan on backing the Padres in the First Five Innings.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass.
Over/Under
Pass.
