The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday, June 16. First pitch from UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on RAYS and MLB.TV.
The Dodgers are favored by -148 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rays are +126 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Dodgers Prediction
- Rays vs Dodgers Pick: Rays Moneyline (+126)
My Rays vs Dodgers best bet is on Tampa Bay to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Dodgers Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | +126 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -148 |
- Rays vs Dodgers Moneyline: Rays +126, Dodgers -148
- Rays vs Dodgers Over/Under: 8.5 (-102o / -120u)
- Rays vs Dodgers Run Line: Rays +1.5 (-178), Dodgers -1.5 (+146)
Rays vs Dodgers Polymarket MLB Odds
Rays vs Dodgers Probable Pitchers
| RHP Drew Rasmussen (TBR) | Stat | LHP Justin Wrobleski (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | W-L | 7-2 |
| 2.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 2.71/2.89 | ERA / xERA | 2.95/4.19 |
| 3.03/2.84 | FIP / xFIP | 3.67/4.59 |
| 22.7% | K-BB% | 9.8% |
| 49.2% | GB% | 38.3% |
| .236 | BABIP | .243 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 111 | Location+ | 111 |
Rays vs Dodgers MLB Betting Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Rays send out their best starter for game two of this big series after dropping the first one 4-3 last night. Drew Rasmussen gets the ball, and he has been so good once again. He's thrown 14 scoreless innings over his last two starts with 22 strikeouts and one walk. He is the K-to-walk king with a ratio of 32:4 in his last four starts.
His cutter has been the main reason for his take-off lately. It has a 16.8% SwStr% with a .289 xwOBA allowed over these last five starts – that's 125 cutters thrown. But Rasmussen's best attribute is pitch tunneling. He throws cutters, four-seamers, and sinkers at you, and they all look the same out of the hand until they move in different directions.
The Dodgers are a good lineup, but Rasmussen is somewhat matchup-proof just because he's so, so good when he's on his game. He faced the Dodgers last August and went 5.2 innings scoreless against them.
If there's a way to attack Rasmussen in betting, it's probably with left-handed hitters who have six of the eight homers hit off of him this year and a lower 49% GB%. But they still aren't good numbers by any stretch (.281 xwOBA, 28% K%).
I don't really like betting on either side in situations like this. The Dodgers can give you headaches, but Rasmussen is good enough to shut them down if the locations are pristine again like they have been.
The other angle to look at is that Rasmussen doesn't throw a lot of pitches. The Rays have loosened the reins a bit this year, but he's gone over 100 pitches just once.
He's thrown seven innings three times in the last four, but those are his only three of the year, and they've required crazy efficiency and a low BABIP to help with that.
The league average MLB plate appearance sees 3.90 pitches. When the Dodgers are at the plate, that goes up to 4.01. That's the third-most in the league, just barely behind the Yankees and Guardians at 4.02.
But the books are being wild on this one. The opening line was over/under 15.5 with about -110 on the over. That's aggressive of them. Rasmussen has flown by this number in six of his last seven.
With the Dodgers being so tough, it's probably the right line. But if you believe that a pitcher can truly be HOT, then Rasmussen should be good enough to get into the sixth inning in this one. But I can't say I recommend it.
PROJECTION ON RASMUSSEN: 5.1 IP, 4.96 H, 2.44 ER, 5.04 SO, 1.80 BB
For the Rays lineup, things look pretty bleak against the crafty lefty Wrobleski. The Rays are tied with the Red Sox for last in the league in homers. They're slugging .384 – the eighth lowest in the game. And Wrobleski is a soft contact specialist with a lefty release point that teams don't see super often.
Only Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero have had hope of barreling the ball regularly in this lineup, and Wrobleski is a guy who keeps the ball off of the barrel of the bat.
He's allowed just a 7.6% Brl% to righties this year with only two homers given up. The Rays usually score their runs in ways other than the long ball, but they'll definitely have to do that tonight to win this game.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
Speaking of Wrobleski, he's a tough pitcher to figure out. A lot of metrics would tell you he's been very lucky. His 2.95 ERA is nowhere near his 4.68 SIERA and 4.59 xFIP. But we're 11 starts and 73.1 innings into his season and he keeps putting up good numbers.
But a 9.8% K-BB% and .243 BABIP with an 8% HR/FB have me constantly on the fade side of the guy. You can't get away with this stuff for long. He has the 8th lowest HR/FB in the league (10+ GS) and the 12th-lowest BABIP. His xBA allowed is .262, but the actual average allowed is .211.
So we have two starters with pristine box score numbers going at it here, but only one of them is convincingly good – and that guy, Rasmussen, is the underdog!
PROJECTION ON WROBLESKI: 6.0 IP, 5.7 H, 2.63 ER, 4.8 SO, 1.7 BB
Rays vs Dodgers Pick, Betting Analysis
We're in for a pretty boring affair in this one, I think. Probably not a ton of swing-and-miss, and quite possibly no home runs whatsoever.
These are two pitchers who attack the strike zone and allow balls in play, but they're weak hits to where their fielders can make outs. I'd guess it'll be a pretty short game, but to this point, we can't bet the over/under on time of play.
What I'm seeing is an edge to the Rays. Rasmussen is the better starting pitcher, and the Rays project to get an absolute ton of balls into play against Wrobleski. So they should be able to scratch a few runs together for a 3-2 win or something of that sort.
I suppose I would be on the under 8.5 side as well, but it's always uncomfortable to do that with this Dodgers lineup in play.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (+126)
