The Washington Nationals host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 29, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
This series begins with two struggling starters on the mound: Mitchell Parker for the Nationals and Adrian Houser for the Rays.
Find my MLB betting preview and Rays vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Rays vs Nationals Prediction
- Rays vs Nationals pick: Over 9 (-115)
My Rays vs Nationals best bet is Over 9 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Nationals Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 9 -115o / -105u | -145 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 9 -115o / -105u | +120 |
Rays vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Adrian Houser (TB) | Stat | LHP Mitchell Parker (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 7-14 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 2.88 / 4.28 | ERA / xERA | 6.01 /5.79 |
| 3.74 / 4.40 | FIP / xFIP | 5.01 / 5.21 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.49 |
| 9.1 | K-BB% | 15.6 |
| 49.3 | GB% | 35.8 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 105 | Location+ | 101 |
Rays vs Nationals Preview
Adrian Houser had an impressive first half of the season, which prompted the Rays to acquire him before the trade deadline. Even in July, he continued to perform strongly.
However, this month has been a disaster, almost a reminder of his atrocious 2024 season. Houser has a 5.32 ERA in August after giving up four runs or more in three of his four outings.
Another important factor is that Houser has done worse all season when pitching on the road, with an ERA almost half a point higher (3.48) than his ERA at home (2.08).
The Nats will send Mitchell Parker to the hill, and he has been consistently bad all season. You could even see his numbers doing slightly worse: he holds a 6.01 ERA in his last 30 outings, a 7.11 ERA in his past 15 starts, and an 8.82 ERA in his most recent seven.
Parker has a 12.00 ERA in August and has allowed four runs or more in his five starts this month.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the over.
Late in the MLB season, games played in hitter-friendly or high-variance environments — such as in Colorado, Arizona, and Washington — tend to go over the total when the closing line is modest (≤10.5).
These markets often underestimate run production during the final stretch of the season due to weather conditions (e.g., dry heat in AZ/CO, humid air in DC) and expanded rosters, increasing bullpen volatility.
Public perception around fatigue or playoff pressure may further depress totals.
This creates value when betting on overs for these specific home teams during regular-season games in August to October.
Pick: Over 9 (-115, BetMGM)
Rays vs Nationals Betting Trends
