Thursday MLB Props Odds & Predictions: Our 2 Favorite Bets for Triston McKenzie, Josh Naylor (June 16)
George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Triston McKenzie.
We have another busy Major League Baseball slate on deck, with nine games taking place Thursday across the North American landscape.
That said, I’ve found two player props I like on the card, with both selections coming from the matinee showdown between the Cleveland Guardians and Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Triston McKenzie — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
| Guardians @ Rockies | |
| First Pitch | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
McKenzie continues to impress in a bounce-back season for the Guardians. He will take the mound at altitude in his latest outing.
McKenzie has been a solid road option for the Guardians, with his line set at 4.5 strikeouts. Presently, McKenzie is averaging 7.36 K/9 on the road, but is averaging six strikeouts over his last three starts. Additionally, two of his last three starts came on the road.
Over the past three weeks, the Rockies are third in MLB in strikeout percentage at home against right-handed pitchers and sixth in walks percentage, meaning they’re working deep into counts. This should help McKenzie manuever his way into some favorable counts, so clearing 4.5 strikeouts is a comfortable total.
McKenzie has had seven starts on the road, where he's eclipsed this number on four occasions. In total, he's averaging close to 5.5 strikeouts per start.
Action Labs' prop tool rates this over a 10/10 on its scale, and so does “Julesyboy Labs,” which is basically just me, my cat and a calculator.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Josh Naylor — Over 1.5 Total Bases (-150)
| Guardians @ Rockies | |
| First Pitch | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Sticking with the Guardians and Rockies matchup, Naylor has been one of the most underrated offensive players in the American League. He has also been a terror against RHP this season.
So far, he's hitting .310 with a .260 ISO against RHP, but he's been hitting .305 with a .288 ISO against RHP on the road this season.
Chat Kuhl is on the mound for the Rockies. In his last two home starts, left-handed hitters are batting .429 with a .500 ISO against him. So, this seems like a great situation for Naylor.
Naylor has been enjoying his stay in Denver as well. He's hitting .500, but has eclipsed 1.5 total bases in both prior games this series.
The Rockies' bullpen is also a mediocre group, so even if Naylor can't get it done against Kuhl, he'll still have good opportunities to clear 1.5 total bases later in the game.
Naylor is sitting at -150 odds as of writing, so hopefully it stays there. That said, if the number gets lower, the less value this pick has ahead of this matchup.
However, getting -150 doesn't seem so bad for something that seems easily achievable for Naylor.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases
Action Labs Grade: N/A
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