Tigers vs. Blue Jays MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Jose Berrios and the Under in Toronto (Sunday, July 31)

Tigers vs. Blue Jays MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Jose Berrios and the Under in Toronto (Sunday, July 31) article feature image

Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher José Berríos.

  • The Blue Jays are heavy home favorites today against the Tigers.
  • The Tigers will have Garrett Hill on the mound while the Blue Jays counter with Jose Berrios.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Tigers vs. Blue Jays Odds

Tigers Odds+245
Blue Jays Odds-300
Over/Under9 (-105/-115)
Time12:05 p.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The AL East's Toronto Blue Jays host the Detroit Tigers in the fourth and final game of this series on Sunday afternoon. All three of the previous games in this series have gone under today's total, which is set at nine.

Will we get another low-scoring affair between these two clubs, or can the hitting pick up this time around?

Will the Tigers Give Hill Run Support?

Over the Tigers' last 10 games, the total runs scored have finished at nine or fewer in six of them (60%). I expect this trend to continue as right-hander Garrett Hill is slated to take the mound for Detroit.

Through four starts this season, Hill is 1-2 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. We are partly getting a generous total in this game because of his poor surface-level numbers.

If you take a deeper dive into Hill's performances this season, there is really one game that is hampering his season totals. On July 9th, Hill got smacked by the White Sox as he allowed six earned runs on six hits over five innings pitched.

However, his other three starts have been solid as he has allowed seven earned runs on 12 hits over 16 innings pitched. In those four starts, the total runs scored have gone under nine three times (75%).

One of the league's most underrated bullpens follows Hill. Since June 1st, the Tigers' relief pitching ranks fourth in the league in ERA, third in SLG, seventh in wOBA, second in FIP, and third in Hard-Hit Rate.

That being said, this pitching staff may not get too much run support as the Tigers are slated to go against right-hander Jose Berrios. When facing right-handed pitchers, Detroit ranks just 26th in the league in BA, 30th in SLG, 30th in OPS, 30th in wOBA, and 28th in Hard-Hit Rate.

Through 135 career plate appearances against Berrios, this current Tigers roster possesses a mere .228 BA, .317 SLG, and .265 wOBA.

Berrios and the Blue Jays Should Stymie the Tigers' Hitters

Like the Tigers, the Toronto Blue Jays have been involved in lower-scoring contests recently as there have been nine or fewer total runs scored in eight of their last 12 games (75%). As I mentioned above, the right-hander Berrios is slated to take the mound for Toronto.

Through 20 starts this season, Berrios is 7-4 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. In a similar situation to Hill, we are getting a generous number on the total because of these surface-level numbers.

While It is true that Berrios can get shelled on any given game due to his tendency to sometimes give up the long ball, he has been in much better form recently. Over his last five starts, Berrios is 2-0 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

Across those five outings, the total runs scored have gone under nine in three of them (60%). We should expect this strong stretch to continue against Detroit's poor offense.

In Berrios' one start against the Tigers this season, he threw a gem as he surrendered just one earned run and five hits over eight innings pitched. His dominance of Detroit stretches over the last few seasons as well.

Over Berrios' last four starts against the Tigers, he is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Following Berrios is an above-average bullpen. Since June 1, the Blue Jays' relief pitching ranks 13th in the league in ERA and 11th in WHIP.

Tigers-Blue Jays Pick

Despite Toronto's high-powered offense, we are rolling with the under in this game. Outside of the White Sox game, Hill has looked like a solid starter in his first year on a big-league mound.

Even if Hill struggles from the start, he has a great bullpen backing him up. On the other hand, we have a surging Berrios who has been dominant over his last five starts pitching for Toronto

Not only has Berrios found his form recently, but he has also thrived against the Tigers over the last couple of seasons. Assuming he can go deep, Toronto's bullpen should be solid enough to not ruin the under for us.

I believe this number is over-inflated due to a number of different variables, including Hill and Berrios' surface-level stats and Toronto's powerful offense. Each game in this series has gone under nine total runs, and I am backing that trend to hit for us once again.

Pick: Under 9 (-115) | Play up to (-125)

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