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MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tigers vs. Twins: Which Betting Angle Do Sharps Think Will Pay Off (July 27)

MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tigers vs. Twins: Which Betting Angle Do Sharps Think Will Pay Off (July 27) article feature image

Photo by David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Andrelton Simmons #9 of the Minnesota Twins throws the ball to first base

  • The Detroit Tigers are big underdogs tonight against the Minnesota Twins, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're a bad bet either.
  • Using our PRO betting tools, we breakdown where the value lies in Tigers vs. Twins, including the betting model edge that sharps are hammering.

Tigers vs. Twins Odds

Tigers Odds+170
Twins Odds-200
Time8:10 p.m. ET

Tuesday’s Tigers vs. Twins moneyline is an interesting one.

At 47-55 on the season, Detroit has a better record than Minnesota (43-58), yet according to the latest MLB odds, the Twins are whopping -212 favorites for Tuesday night’s matchup between the AL Central rivals.

Of course, MLB odds are heavily affected by starting pitchers no matter the overall records of the teams facing off, so is this number too long to not take Detroit?

Or is there still sneaky value with the Twins despite the long price?

Based on our MLB PRO Report, that answer is clear.

Tigers vs. Twins Pick

Sharp Action

Detroit is a massive underdog today against Minnesota, but that big price has already shortened a bit thanks to professional bettors.

PointsBet initially opened the Tigers at +185, but multiple influxes of sharp betting action has driven that number down to +170.

In fact, while the specific odds may not be exactly the same, this pattern of line movement has occurred across the entire MLB market.

Big Money

While the bets-vs.-dollars discrepancy in this game isn’t massive, the fact that 56% of the money (on just 48% of the tickets) is flowing on Detroit as a massive underdog helps confirm exactly where oddsmakers’ liability is building.

Model Projection

Remember, betting on a +170-ish underdog doesn’t mean you necessarily expect it to win, but that it will win more often than the odds imply.

Let me explain: A +170 moneyline implies that Detroit will win this game 37.04% of the time.

Our MLB PRO Projections set the Tigers’ moneyline at +149.

A +149 line implies a 40.16% win rate for Detroit against Minnesota tonight.

Again, even at +149 our MLB betting model expects the Tigers to lose more often than not, but the difference in a true price of +149 vs. the widely-available +170 results in a 3.1% edge right now — an edge that was even bigger for savvy bettors who piled onto Detroit’s opener.

Top Experts

As is customary at The Action Network, our top bettors leverage our PRO betting tools to find value, and one MLB expert has done just that with Detroit.

PRO Report Pick: Tigers +170

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