The Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals on May 9, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NATS.
The Marlins are favored by -156 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +132 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction
- Nationals vs Marlins Pick: Marlins ML (-156, play to -190)
My Nationals vs Marlins best bet is on Miami to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Marlins Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +132 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -156 |
- Nationals vs Marlins moneyline: Nationals +132, Marlins -156
- Nationals vs Marlins over/under: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Nationals vs Marlins spread: Marlins -1.5 (+130), Nationals +1.5 (-156)
Nationals vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| RHP Zack Littell (WSH) | Stat | RHP Janson Junk (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | W-L | 2-3 |
| -1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 7.24/8.36 | ERA / xERA | 2.82/3.35 |
| 8.42/5.61 | FIP / xFIP | 3.44/3.87 |
| 3.3% | K-BB% | 12.3% |
| 36.1% | GB% | 50.4% |
| .250 | BABIP | .250 |
| 83 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 95 | Location+ | 110 |
Nationals vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
Nationals vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
The Nationals have been pretty impressive compared to expectations. They have the second-best record in the National League East, which sounds better than it is, but this division is terrible besides the Braves. All it takes is one strong series to get the Nats above .500, though.
The primary issue for Washington is pitching, and Zack Littell is the worst pitcher in the majors thus far in 2026.
Littell was able to outperform his expected numbers in Tampa, but this year his ERA is 7.24 with an 8.36 xERA and 8.42 FIP. Littell has an impossibly bad 3.42 HR/9, as he gave up multiple homers in five of his seven outings this year.
Furthermore, Littell ranks in the 1st percentile in average exit velocity, sixth in barrel rate, and third in strikeout rate. So, he doesn’t strike out batters and gets hit as hard as any other pitcher. No wonder his numbers are this ghastly.
I also have very little faith in this Washington lineup. Over the last two weeks, it ranks 21st in MLB with a 93 wRC+. Swinging and missing is a real issue for the Nationals, who sport a 25% strikeout rate over that span (2nd worst in MLB).
James Wood is still putting up elite numbers, posting a 142 wRC+ with a 23% walk rate in his last 16 games.
Walks have played an integral role in the Nationals' improved offensive numbers. For the year, they walk 9% of the time, which is below league average. Since April 20th, they’re walking more than 10.4% of the time — fifth best in MLB.
Janson Junk has morphed into a reliable rotation option for the Marlins. The 30-year-old boasts a 2.82 ERA with a 3.36 xERA and a 3.45 FIP. I don’t think this is a fluke. Just look at Junk’s Stuff+, which is up to 102 from 96 last year, and his fastball velo is up to 94.6, up a whole mile from last year.
Plus, he generates ground balls at a 50.4% rate, up from 40% last year. Junk doesn’t quite live up to his last name.
Usually, pitchers who run a ground-ball rate in the 50% range just pepper their sinkers. That's not the case for Junk, who throws a sinker just 2% of the time.
His versatile pitch mix keeps hitters on their toes, despite not featuring a sinker often. He’s not an Eury Perez or Sandy Alcantara type, but an enhanced version of the strike-throwing, innings-eater archetype.
Lineup-wise, the Marlins are basically without the two players I thought would be their two best hitters. One, Agustin Ramirez got sent down for top catching prospect Joe Mack. The other, Kyle Stowers, has struggled to regain his All-Star form from 2025. He missed three weeks due to injury, but has a 42 wRC+ in 16 games.
So, it's not a huge shocker that the Marlins are 23rd in wRC+ since April 20th. Liam Hicks is putting this lineup on his back with help from high-average hitters Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez. They just don't hit for slug, as the Marlins have a .112 ISO in that span.
How crazy is this? The Marlins, who seldom hit homers against Littell, who loves to give up homers. I think that benefits the Marlins more because Littell has to be nearing DFA territory. He's been terrible, and I can't justify betting on a soft-tosser with an ERA close to 8.00.
Pick: Marlins ML (-156, play to -190)
