Wednesday MLB NRFI Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction: Target Luis Castillo, Michael Kopech in Seattle (September 7)
Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Castillo #21 of the Seattle Mariners.
Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.
No Runs First Inning (-140)
|M. Kopech (White Sox) vs. L. Castillo (Mariners)
|4:10 p.m. ET
On Wednesday, we travel to Seattle to find value in matchup between two American League teams: the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago White Sox.
The Mariners will send out newly acquired pitcher Luis Castillo. Coming into today Castillo is 15-5 to the NRFI with a 7-2 home NRFI split. Castillo dominates teams’ No. 2 hitters he is currently holding them to a lousy .151 average.
Here is how Castillo has done in the past against some of these White Sox hitters:
- José Abreu: 0-for-3
- AJ Pollock: 0-for-5
- Yoan Moncada: 1-for-3
There are two key hitters Castillo will face that are in the midst of a slump. Gavin sheets is just 3-for-15 and his last 18 at-bats, and following his struggles is Eloy Jimenez who is 4-for-21 in his last 25 at-bats. Both are batting below .200.
The White Sox will send out Michael Kopech. Coming into today Kopech is an even 11-11 to the NRFI. His record isn’t the most attractive, taking a deeper look at his record he should be significantly better than 11-11. When facing teams' lead-off hitters and No. 2 hitters Kopech has held them both to a respective .160 average and a .154 average.
On top of this, when facing hitters the first time through the order Kopech has only allowed a .198 average. These advanced stats do not reflect a pitcher who has an 11-11 NRFI record.
Kopech has had very limited appearances against these mariners hitters, which leaves the unfamiliarity to his advantage.
It should be noted that J.P Crawford and Jesse Winker are both struggling at the plate this past week:
- Jesse Winker: 1-for-11
- J.P Crawford: 3-for-21
The Mariners NRFI at home 71% of the time in 2022 pair them with the White Sox who NRFI on the road 74% of the time. This provides us with a significant edge to the NRFI today.
Bet on these two pitchers to have a shutdown first inning. Take the NRFI between the White Sox and the Mariners.
As always, six outs to glory.