Wednesday MLB Props Odds, Picks: Our 2 Favorite Strikeout Bets for Pablo Lopez, Joe Musgrove (July 13)
Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove.
- We have another busy night in Major League Baseball action with several intriguing matchups on deck.
- Analyst Tanner McGrath has found quality value bets when it comes to player props he's backing on the docket.
- Check out below where he has landed with his selections on two strikeout props.
There are plenty of great Major League Baseball starting pitchers taking the mound Wednesday, from Tarik Skubal to Shohei Ohtani.
Using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’m targeting two aces from the Marlins and Padres for the highest-value props.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Pablo Lopez — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-129)
|Pirates @ Marlins|
|First Pitch||6:40 p.m. ET|
Pablo Lopez has been struggling. Once considered a Cy Young contender, the Miami righty pitched to a 4.89 ERA in a six-game stretch between June 4 and July 3.
His strikeout and whiff numbers didn’t drop drastically, but Lopez did see a slight decline in those numbers as well. However, it’s mostly his poor performance that has made him finish with five or fewer strikeouts in seven of his last 10 games.
Yet, Lopez looked more like himself against the Mets five days ago. I’m hoping he’ll start to settle down and that changeup will continue to force whiffs at a 40% rate.
This poor stretch recently has also been almost entirely on the road. Seven of Lopez’s last nine starts have come away from LoanDepot Park, and his home-away splits should be taken into consideration.
- 2022 Lopez at home: 41 IP, 2.41 ERA, .264 wOBA, 3.27 xFIP, 9.44 K/9
- 2022 Lopez on the road: 58 IP, 3.26 ERA, .311 wOBA, 3.64 xFIP, 8.53 K/9
In fact, Lopez has cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in five of his seven home starts this season, good for a 71% hit rate that implies -250 odds to the over.
Lopez should also have a good matchup against this Pirates lineup. The Pirates have the second-highest strikeout rate against RHPs on the season (25.4%) and the highest rate on the road (27.9%) overall.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Lopez for 7.3 strikeouts, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 6.3 strikeouts. Both lines project value on the over in this matchup.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-129)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Joe Musgrove — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
|Padres @ Rockies|
|First Pitch||8:40 p.m. ET|
Joe Musgrove is having his breakout year. He’s second in the NL Cy Young betting markets and anchors the seventh-best rotation (3.63 ERA) in baseball.
I like Musgrove because he pounds the strike zone. He’s on pace to post the highest called strike rate of his career (20.3%) and ranks in the 88th percentile of pitchers in CSW rate (32%) overall. Combine that with his 6 2/3 average innings per start and the strikeout totals have piled up.
Musgrove has cashed this number in 11 of his 14 starts this season, averaging just around 6.5 strikeouts per game. If you exclude a strange start against Philadelphia where he punched out just one batter over 88 pitches, Musgrove has notched 33 strikeouts over his last 27 innings.
The Rockies are a disciplined team, ranking among the bottom-10 in strikeout rate (21.4%) against right-handed pitchers. However, Musgrove faced this lineup three times last season and finished with lines of:
- 5/19: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 34% CSW, 11 Ks
- 7/10: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 30% CSW, 6 Ks
- 7/29: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 40% CSW, 11 Ks
Musgrove didn’t need more than 94 pitches in any of those starts to reach this number.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Musgrove for 6.4 strikeouts, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 4.9 in the game. There’s enough evidence here to back him either way.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10