Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball, and he might not finish the season in Detroit.
Trade rumors are intensifying and Kalshi traders are predicting where he may land.
Tarik Skubal Next Team Predictions, Odds
Skubal won back-to-back AL Cy Young Awards in 2024 and 2025, and was the centerpiece of a Tigers team that, not long ago, looked like a legitimate contender. Detroit put together a massive campaign in 2025, made a deep postseason run, and had every reason to believe 2026 would be more of the same.
However, the Tigers spent May in a complete freefall, and their starting rotation is on life support with five pitchers on the Injured List. Skubal himself hasn't pitched since late April and underwent a minor procedure to remove a bone chip from his left elbow in early May, though early signs of recovery have been encouraging, and he could return by mid-June.
Reporter Jon Heyman put it plainly: the trade chances are rising because the team keeps losing, five starters are on the Injured List, Skubal is progressing well, and Detroit has no realistic path to keeping him long-term.
Then there's the contract situation, which is the real engine behind all of this.
Skubal is in the final year of his deal. Detroit never made him a serious long-term offer. His agent is Scott Boras, who tends to take clients to free agency rather than settle early. Once the season ends, Skubal will likely command somewhere north of $400 million, making him potentially the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history. The Tigers almost certainly can't, or won't, pay that.
So what could they do? Maybe hold on, hope the team rallies, and let Skubal walk in November with only a draft pick in return. Or they could trade him before the August 31 deadline and get back some top-100 prospects to build toward the future instead of chasing a season that's already slipping away.
Every week the Tigers keep losing, the second option looks more obvious.
Dodgers Leading the Market
The Los Angeles Dodgers hold the top spot on Kalshi for a reason. They have the money, the farm system, and a rotation currently decimated by injuries.
When asked about a potential deal for Skubal, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts didn't shy away: "They would go ballistic," he said, acknowledging the reaction around baseball. "But we would have the prospect capital to do that. We are one of the teams that could do that with the Tigers." Several executives around the league have pointed to them as the most natural fit.
Nevertheless, the market reflects uncertainty. The New York Yankees need pitching and have resources. Milwaukee has been one of the surprise teams of 2026 and would love an ace for a playoff run.
Atlanta has the lineup to compete for a title and, for the first time in years, a farm system that could absorb the cost of a big trade.
No one is running away with the market because no one really knows what Detroit will do. Scott Harris, the Tigers' President of Baseball Operations, has been described by reporters as a "realist", someone unlikely to chase a long shot. But until Skubal actually pitches again and proves he's healthy, no team will commit.
As Skubal himself put it after a win over Tampa Bay this week: "With all the trade stuff, we just got to start winning games."
He's right. The problem is the Tigers aren't doing that right now.
